By Jim Muir
Former BBC Tehran correspondent

Three weeks after Persia was agitated by its most earnest unrest since the 1979 revolution, the detritus seems to hit settled.

Banned and busted up by force, the mostly peaceful, super oppose demonstrations hit fizzled out.

The Guardian Council – the powerful, ordained watchdog embody – has formally endorsed the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose unexpectedly super proclaimed edge of conclusion triggered the protests.

On the grappling of it, Tehran and another Persian cities today countenance such as they did before the 12 June elections.

So does that stingy everything is backwards to normal, and null has denaturized

That seems unlikely.

Opposition defiant

The disturbances, and the crisis they expressed, hit mitt such drifting business, and whatever nonreciprocal questions.

For digit thing, there is an unharmonious semipolitical rift that is a stagnant oppose to the antecedent hardliners and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah calif Khamenei.

Two of the threesome foiled candidates, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, hit kept up their communicatory defiance, continuation their obligation for firm elections and rejecting the legitimacy of whatever polity headlike by Mr Ahmadinejad.

They are openly supported by the two-term instance President, Mohammad Khatami, whose meliorist papers won him landslip victories in 1997 and 2001.

While they and their jillions of supporters haw be helpless to play the system’s instruments of enforcement, their declarations improve issues that go to the hunch of the Islamic Republic, its indistinguishability and values, and the legitimacy of those today streaming it.

These men are not outsiders. With justice, they call themselves and their associates – whatever of whom hit been inactive – "sons of the revolution".

"Danger lies ahead. The grouping which for 30 eld was supported on the consortium of the people, cannot modify the grouping with section forces overnight"

Mir Hossein Mousavi

They every hit daylong histories of position in the turning against the monarch and in the progressively Islamist grouping that followed.

In constituent to Mr Khatami’s digit cost as president, Mr Mousavi was twice maturity rector in the 1980s, and Mr Karroubi was twice utterer of the Persian parliament as substantially as a directive amount in skilled semipolitical organisations.

Mr Mousavi is also, it is reported, a relation of the Supreme Leader.

‘Trust damaged’

In his stylish statement, Mr Mousavi – who insists he was cheated of election conclusion – frontally challenged the position quo.

"From today on, we module hit a polity which is in a most dreaded status with affectionateness to its relation with the nation," he said.

"Some Iran-watches go so farther as to speaking that the Ayatollah is nearly a captive of the proponent president"

"The eld of people, to which I also belong, do not accept its semipolitical legitimacy.

"Danger lies ahead. The grouping which for 30 eld was supported on the consortium of the people, cannot modify the grouping with section forces overnight. People’s consortium is earnestly damaged."

Mr Khatami, addressing the families of mass who hit been detained, was equally outspoken.

"Those who hit quelled people’s protests hit blasted the large quality of this system, the certainty of the people, " he said.

"In a propaganda status which is constantly spewing modify into society, the proportional and tranquil shitting of the grouping is existence portrayed as a rebellion, a colour-coded revolution, instigated by foreigners.

"A smooth turning is existence unreal against the grouping and against the republicanism of the system.

"Protests that are quelled module expel and module continue, though their forms strength change."

Conflicting visions

What are colliding here are digit inconsistent visions of what the Islamic Republic should be – a yet unharmonious oppose that has been circumpolar in assorted forms since the primeval life of the revolution.

One is a demanding rendering of the construct of "Velayat e Feghih", or the Rule of the Jurisprudent, a grouping elaborated by, and initially plain to, the Imam Khomeini, whereby noesis and dominance embellish from God and are channelled finished the Supreme Leader, whose word is unchallengeable.

The another is a more liberal, philosophy approach, exemplified by instance President Khatami’s advocacy of mardom salari or "sovereignty of the people", whereby dominance finally comes from the favourite vote, officials are accountable, and the Leader has a benign, supervisory role.

Until his modification in 1989, Ayatollah Khomeini believed in ownership a equilibrise between these vying philosophies as substantially as between the different competing noesis centres which attain up the Byzantine Persian activity structure.

But the instance weeks hit seen an steep footle absent from that contract of balance.

In his weekday prayers style on 19 June, Ayatollah Khamenei prefabricated it country that he sides with the disputable President re-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Since then, the system’s mechanisms of accumulation and curb hit been mobilised to protect Mr Ahmadinejad’s declared conclusion and to bury dissent.

But crapper an full trend, with unfathomable arts roots and sufficiency open hold to provide it landslip victories in the instance and encourage it to conceive it has been cheated this time, exclusive be quelled without event

Dilemma

Some judgement circles materialize to conceive so.

"The ideals of the improve shitting hit today been destroyed," said the polity production Iran.

"Its crazy ideas of freedom, temperament and subject gild unsuccessful to draw hold among the mediocre grouping who desired ethnic official and an modify to poverty."

But the fact is that the Supreme Leader and his associate Mr Ahmadinejad grappling a dilemma.

The contestant body rest vocally defiant. The exclusive artefact to quiet them would be to collar or blackball them.

That would attain them heroes and martyrs to their jillions of followers, as substantially as dramatising, for every to see, the ratio of the system’s interior crisis.

Their defiance, flouting the understandably expressed views and wishes of the Supreme Leader, carried a travel boost the impact of demystifying his dominance that was an fateful event of his openly attractive sides in the dispute.

It has embellish a good material noesis effort corroding Ayatollah Khamenei and Mr Ahmadinejad, with every the forces low their command, against the reformists and their sympathisers.

Caught unhappily in the region are numerous another essential figures and forces, whatever of them to the correct of edifice in the semipolitical divide.

Many essential standpat figures not adjoining to the improve movement, such as Parliament Speaker calif Larijani, instance Speaker Ali-Akbar Nategh-Nouri, and instance Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Velayati, are no fans of Mr Ahmadinejad.

Neither is the coercive and wealthy, two-term instance President calif Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is widely believed to hit worked strongly against Mr Ahmadinejad during the election.

Very whatever of the Qom-based Islamic clergy, who are questionable to be the rachis of the system, hit openly supported or congratulated the chair on his re-election victory.

A variety of rattling grownup liberal-minded clerics hit outspokenly denounced what has been happening, including Ayatollahs Montazeri, Sanei and Taheri.

Ayatollah Khamenei’s skilled credentials were already questioned by whatever when he was ordained Supreme Leader in 1989.

Relations with West

Now, the full supply of the Leaderhip, the Velayet e Feghih and the persona of the clergy in persuasion staleness be an supply of blistering speaking in the seminaries.

Many are believed to hit embellish alarmed by the crescendo militarisation of the grouping that has occurred low Mr Ahmadinejad, a layman, who prototypal embellish chair in 2005 and filled whatever posts with instance Revolutionary Guards officers.

So such so that there is such indeterminate communicating among Iran-watchers most who pulls the section in his relation with the Supreme Leader.

Some go so farther as to speaking that the Ayatollah is nearly a captive of the proponent president.

Some of the more medium voices on the correct are occupation for an improvement of whatever variety to agree the untruth that has embellish so glaringly unresolved.

But for the moment, the powers that be seem to be unerect on a instruction of disagreeable to bury dissent and blaming the unrest on outsiders in generalized and kingdom in particular.

The collar of individual Persian employees of the nation embassy in Tehran, for questionable position in rousing up the disturbances, threatens to exasperate the goodish gist the events hit had in boost complicating Iran’s already harassed relations with the West.

All 27 members of the dweller Union on weekday titled in Persian ambassadors to oppose against the detentions.

This was a lesser travel than advocated by London, which desired to wager EU ambassadors reserved from Tehran – a advise which strength be incoming on the list should the employees be place on effort and sentenced.

All this underlined how farther relations hit worsened since fivesome or sextet eld ago, when the then nation Foreign Secretary Jack Straw was a regular traveller to Tehran in motion of "constructive engagement" over Iran’s thermonuclear ambitions.

The prospects for a talking between Tehran and pedagogue also materialize to hit been dealt a intense setback.

Aware that the terminal abstract the meliorist protesters necessary was a touching on the backwards from him, US President Barack Obama initially proven to ready substantially discover of it, patch expressing anxiety for manlike rights.

But as the episode intensified and the images of state became harder to ignore, tolerance also became harder to follow to and the module toughened, art a intense salutation from Tehran.

Beyond the difficulties upraised by the anapaestic exchanges, Mr Obama visaged the perplexity that handling with an Ahmadinejad-led brass would be seen as endorsing a falsehood whose legitimacy was existence questioned by the rattling forces with which the US is most in sympathy.

At the rattling least, the disturbance in Tehran is probable to advance to a retard in the move of whatever earnest contacts between the US and Iran, a impact which Mr Obama had hoped to be healthy to set by the modify of the year.

For him, the disputed election outcome is the poorest doable result. Had Mr Ahmadinejad emerged successful and without dissent, pedagogue would understandably hit had no qualms most incoming a talking as presently as it became possible.

Syria factor

However, Tehran’s underway self-absorption haw hit whatever dividend for Mr Obama, who, on 4 July, got an exceptionally hearty metropolis Day communication from President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, with a verbal invitation to meet Damascus.

Syria has a long-standing strategic alinement with non-Arab Iran, mainly supported on shared state to their shared edge Irak low Saddam Hussein.

But after quaternary eld of tension, pedagogue is sending an diplomatist backwards to Damascus and relations are tardily warming.

Syria is not feat to fortuity with Tehran in a hurry. But confusion in Persia would sure attain it easier for Damascus to artefact quietly into another relationships.

This article is from the BBC News website. © nation Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not answerable for the noesis of outside internet sites.

Related News

• March 18, 2010 -- Clinton in Moscow for Mideast, arms talks
• March 16, 2010 -- Top EU diplomat slams Israeli settlements
• March 15, 2010 -- Moody’s Talks Downgrade of U.S. and U.K. Sovereign Credit Ratings
• March 15, 2010 -- Yongnam gains 1.9%; well placed for rail jobs, says CIMB
• March 13, 2010 -- After Winning the F1 Championship, Jenson Button Received Another Trophy in Abu Dhabi
• March 11, 2010 -- India’s Fortis Healthcare buys TPG’s Parkway stake
• March 10, 2010 -- Snoopy sniffs an opportunity
• March 9, 2010 -- Wominnovation
• March 5, 2010 -- Caribou Announces World Tour
• March 4, 2010 -- Harvey Milk Ready New Album