Will the Copenhagen climate conference end with a deal on carbon emissions?

DELEGATES turning up to the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—known as the Copenhagen conference—face a fortnight of negotiation, beginning on Monday December 7th, almost as rich in complexity as in hyperbole. The range of different possibilities in the negotiations means that there is, potentially, something for everyone, which raises hopes for success. At the same time, there is the near certainty of almost everyone being disappointed to some extent.

The conference has two different sets of aims, which may well be united into one road forward by the end. One set of negotiations is on the Kyoto protocol. The protocol, negotiated in 1997, entered into force in 2005 and imposes targets for carbon-emission reductions on developed countries for the period 2008 to 2012. It imposes no obligations on developing countries, but did set up the clean development mechanism (CDM) by which developed countries could meet commitments by reducing emissions in developing countries, transferring capital in their direction in the process. One track of the Copenhagen negotiations deals with the requirement under Kyoto to agree terms for a second commitment period after 2012, with new and tougher levels of emission reductions dealt with in the existing regime. …