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Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Bank airs double-dip recession fears

• Deputy governor Charles Bean says base rate must not rise too soon
• US treasury secretary Tim Geithner warns of challenges ahead on road to recovery

The deputy governor of the Bank of England pledged tonight to remove Britain’s emergency economic policy boost slowly after a warning from the US treasury secretary, Tim Geithner, that the global economy was still at risk of a double-dip downturn.

Charles Bean, one of two deputies at Threadneedle Street, said a time would come when the Bank’s monetary policy committee would need to push up interest rates from 0.5% and reverse the programme of quantitative easing, which boosts the cash available for lenders.

“But we don’t want to do it too early and nip the recovery in the bud,” Bean said, speaking in Yorkshire as part of a nationwide tour to explain the Bank’s approach to monetary policy.

The deputy governor expressed optimism that the economy would be on the mend by early next year – sentiments echoed by the chancellor, Alistair Darling, and Geithner, after a meeting in London today today to discuss the next steps in fighting the two-year global crisis.

Geithner expressed confidence that President Obama’s $800bn (£500bn) stimulus package would boost recovery prospects in the second half of this year.

“We have a very powerful set of policies in place, coming on stream,” he said. “I think there is a very good chance we will see the US economy and the world economy get back to recovery, get growing again, over the next few quarters.”

Darling said: “In this country we are coming through the severest downturn in 60 years. The measures we have taken are having an effect. I am confident growth will return at the turn of the year.”

Geithner said measures adopted so far had helped provide a base for recovery: “Policy has been effective in arresting and mitigating the force of the storm.”

The US treasury secretary was speaking after meetings with Gordon Brown, Darling, Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, and Lord Turner, the chairman of the Financial Services Authority, to discuss the agenda for the G20 summit in Pittsburgh in September.

Asked whether there was a possibility of a double-dip recession, Geithner added: “In my view there are still significant risks and challenges ahead.”

He said that reform of the financial sector had to ensure that institutions took a more conservative approach to risk-taking; that the regulatory framework was broadened to include sectors currently unregulated; and that consumers and investors were protected against “manipulation and fraud”.

Despite what Geithner called a “remarkably strong consensus” on elements of a reform package, the Pittsburgh summit is likely to outline broad principles rather than introduce specific new measures to tighten up regulation and supervision.

A report published by the British Retail Consortium (BRC), showing that spending in shops rose 1.4% on a like-for-like basis in the year to June, will come as welcome news to the chancellor.

“June’s sunshine gave overall sales a much-needed boost,” said Stephen Robertson, director general of the BRC. “The heatwave helped food retailers and got customers buying outdoor goods, such as garden furniture, pools and picnic ware.

“Clothing clearance sales coincided nicely with the upsurge in demand for summer wear. But the sun knocked sales of furniture and homewares, as people focused on the outdoors. Given the uncertainty about jobs, customers are still nervous about spending on non-essentials.”

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Ten Reasons The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think

The recent unemployment numbers have undermined confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. What we can see on the surface is disconcerting enough, but the inside numbers are just as bad.

Sarah Palin’s Op-Ed Slams Obama’s Cap-And-Trade Plan

There is no shortage of threats to our economy. America’s unemployment rate recently hit its highest mark in more than 25 years and is expected to continue climbing. Worries are widespread that even when the economy finally rebounds, the recov…

Sheldon Filger: Will China’s Economic Crisis Worsen Due to Stimulus Spending?

How ironic that the savior of global capitalism is determined to be the largest Communist state still in existence.

Jack Myers: 2009/2010 Upfront Finally Breaks in Last Gasp for Traditional Business Models

With Barry Diller and John Malone absurdly offering opinions on Twitter’s business viability at Herb Allen’s annual Sun Valley media retreat, the most relevant comment…

Fixing The Economy Is Women’s Work

While the pinstripe crowd fixates on troubled assets, a stalled stimulus and mortgage remedies, it turns out that a more sure-fire financial fix is within our grasp — and has been for years. New research says a healthy dose of estrogen may be…

Obama Asks For Patience On Stimulus

WASHINGTON — With the economy still firmly in the grip of a tenacious recession, President Barack Obama is urging Americans to have patience and give his economic recovery plan time to work.

Restating themes he laid out in his weekly ra…

Mike Elk: AIG Shows Why We Need the Employee Free Choice Act

Unions, representing the combined interests of everyday Americans, can be a valuable instrument in fighting for the interests of all, not just those at the top.

Stephen Herrington: Healthcare and Government’s Role in the Economy

The unsung dirge of this health care nightmare is that health care increased in pricing even while their customers paychecks did not increase. And that is the real issue.

Jodie Allen: How’s That Again?

Wasn’t the fact that American consumers have been borrowing and spending their way into financial oblivion in recent years a major cause of the current economic collapse?

Andrea Robinson: The American Dream, Reimagined

As Paul Hawken recently reminded the Class of 2009, “The earth is hiring.”

Obama: We Don’t Need A Second Stimulus (VIDEO)

(AP) WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama on Saturday dismissed the idea the nation might need a second stimulus to jolt the economy out of recession and urged Americans to be patient with his economic recovery plan.

Faced with rising un…

Mainstream News Organizations Entering the Web’s Link Economy Will Shift the Balance of Power and Wealth

The New York Times published an article this week about mainstream news organizations embracing link journalism and news aggregation. Gawker and others scoffed that they are late to the game, which they are, but that misses (predictably) the BIG story.
If news orgs like the NYT, Washington Post, and hundreds of newspaper sites start linking to [...]

The Tiger Could Lose Its Roar

M’sia needs to work harder and faster if it does not want to be left
behind: Analyst

William Pesek

Those wondering where Malaysia is headed should keep an eye on Mr Tony
Fernandes.

Perhaps no one personifies the promise of Asia’s 10th-biggest economy
better than the 43-year-old entrepreneur. In 2001, he created a budget
airline, beating the odds in an industry dominated by government-linked
companies. AirAsia has been turning heads ever since.

Airline magnate Aristotle Onassis once said the key to succeeding in
business is knowing something others don’t. Mr Fernandes knew that not
only were Asians ready for no-frills carriers, but so were investors.

Mr Fernandes is often called South-east Asia’s answer to Mr Richard
Branson. It seems highly appropriate, then, that the two men teamed to
launch AirAsia X, a long-haul budget carrier that made its maiden flight
this month. Mr Branson’s Virgin Group is among its key backers.

For all his success, Mr Fernandes is a microcosm of why Malaysia’s economy
isn’t on the upward trajectory it could be.

Politicians’ efforts over the years to protect the turf of Malaysia
Airlines (MAS) backfired, leaving Kuala Lumpur lagging behind in the race
for Asia’s travel hub. Malaysia has tied one hand behind its back to help
national champions at the expense of the bigger picture.

“I’m asking this for national interest, not MAS’ interest or that of
anything else,” said Mr Fernandes of his battle to fly from Kuala Lumpur
to Singapore. “The consumers have suffered enough.”

Politicians continue to dither over another national champion:
State-controlled carmaker Proton Holdings. While talks on an alliance with
Volkswagen AG are progressing, the saga is a reminder that Malaysia’s
leaders are wasting time the nation doesn’t have.

In Proton’s case, the exercise is about finding a partner to help revive
sales and return the 24-year-old company to profit. Yet this, like Mr
Fernandes’ fight to expand his innovative airline, is emblematic of how
politicians often don’t grasp that Malaysia’s place in Asia is rather
tenuous.

Malaysia is a remarkable place with incredible potential. Its economy has
achieved great things in the 50 years since independence from Britain.
Once a tropical backwater, Kuala Lumpur is now a modern, skyscraper-filled
city home to the world’s second-tallest buildings, the twin Petronas
Towers.

Yet, the next 50 years will arguably be harder than the last. It wasn’t
one of the original Asian tigers, but Malaysia became one over the years.

However, “the world is moving ahead at a rapid pace and it won’t wait for
Malaysia”, said Mr Razlan Mohamed, chief executive of Malaysian Rating
Corp. The nation “needs to work harder and work faster”.

Ms Chrisanne Chin from MIMS Business School, Malaysian Institute of
Management and INTI University College, puts it this way: “It’s not so
much what Malaysia is lacking, but that China, India, Vietnam and even
Thailand and Indonesia have improved so much they are capable of
leapfrogging Malaysia in another five years because of specific
comparative advantages, from low costs to human capital to technology.”

Human capital is a particular concern. The government needs to do more to
train the leaders of tomorrow and import the talent that companies need to
thrive. It also has to win more of the foreign direct investment flowing
elsewhere in Asia.

There is much backslapping about how the US$147-billion ($213-billion)
economy may expand 6 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent next year. The
real picture can be found in the World Economic Forum’s latest
competitiveness survey, in which Malaysia slipped two spots to 21st place.

A huge obstacle for Malaysia is something that can barely be discussed: A
37-year-old affirmative-action programme favouring the predominant Malay
community.

It alienates non-Malays, limits foreign investment, stifles competition
and keeps the economy from moving toward a meritocracy. Yet, it is a
third-rail issue. Most Malaysians won’t even discuss it without first
looking around to see who is listening.

A sense of political drift doesn’t help. Four years in office, Prime
Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has spent more time trying to solidify the
influence of his political party – the United Malays National
Organisation – than bringing Malaysia’s economy to the next level.

For a glimpse of the future, one could do worse than ask Mr Ramon
Navaratnam, president of anti-corruption group Transparency International
Malaysia and author of the book, Where to, Malaysia?, who has this to say:
“The future is bright, but only if we are honest with ourselves that we
have a lot of difficult work to do … Otherwise, we will see the rest of
Asia pulling ahead and Malaysia walking in place.”

William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are
his own.