The stage is set for crucial vote on America’s health-care reform bill

IT’S official, or as official as these things get. The health-care package destined for a vote in America’s House of Representatives on Sunday will cost $940 billion over the next ten years. Though the Congressional Budget Office score (as the estimate is known), along with the bill’s final details, seems to clear the air on what the House will vote on, the package and the process remain complicated. The House is facing a two-part vote to pass the Senate bill and also tweaks through a process called “reconciliation”. The former may be done through a rule that Republicans are saying is unconstitutional (though they have used it themselves). Procedural trickery or not, everyone in the House will cast a vote on the Senate bill plus reconciliation. Whether it passes or not is far more important than quibbles about the House rules.

The CBO also reckon that the health-care package, through savings and new revenue, will cut the total deficit over those years by $138 billion against a baseline scenario. After that, the savings get even bigger, totalling (a much more speculative) $1.2 trillion by 2029, according to some Democrats. But the sums are questionable. The CBO process has been so thoroughly gamed that the true figures could be quite different. The Republicans claim that it will cost far more and totally reject the idea that it will cut the deficit by such a sum over the second decade. …