Whether or not Mahmoud Abbas goes, the Palestinians look both divided and leaderless

AFTER five hapless years as the Palestinians’ president, Mahmoud Abbas (also known as Abu Mazen) suddenly declared on November 5th that he would not seek re-election in January, when the Palestinian territories are due to hold general and presidential polls. On the face of it, his decision was a blow to the cause of peace. Even before he succeeded Yasser Arafat, who died in 2004, Mr Abbas stood out as a man of peace who preferred negotiation to violence, whereas Mr Arafat, at least in most Israeli eyes, had always juggled the two. After Mr Abbas steps down, who will take over? And in which direction might the new man go?

But within hours of Mr Abbas’s declaration confusion had set in. For a start, it soon became unclear whether Mr Abbas really would step down. He has often threatened to resign. Angered by a recent decision of the American administration to rescind its previous vaunted insistence that Israel’s government should completely stop building and expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank, the core of a would-be Palestinian state, Mr Abbas may have been seeking to win concessions as his price for staying in office—and for returning to the negotiating table. …