AS THE SINGAPORE economy continues to recover, Singaporeans might want to think about what the rebound in economic growth data will actually mean to them as ordinary consumers or as businessmen catering to these consumers. Recall the situation in late 2008 and in early 2009, when GDP growth numbers showed our economy plunging at frightening rates of about 16% and 12%, respectively: While the numbers suggested something close to an economic depression, most Singaporeans appeared to be going about their normal lives unfazed. So, does this mean that when the recovery comes, Singaporeans will not feel very good, either?
Posts Tagged ‘Manu Bhaskaran’
Manu Bhaskaran: What will the economic recovery mean for Singaporeans?
November 4th, 2009 |
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Manu Bhaskaran: Do economic fundamentals justify equity-market moves?
October 16th, 2009 |
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AS EQUITY AND real-estate markets soar, it might be worth taking a step back to judge whether the increasing optimism about an economic recovery will last. It is important to look beyond the headline numbers to see whether the major economies are making the adjustments needed to sustain recovery beyond the impact of the extraordinary but unsustainable government stimulus packages. When we do this, what we find is that while there are encouraging trends, the global economy is still not making the right adjustments.
Manu Bhaskaran: Will Asian assets really outperform globally?
October 2nd, 2009 |
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OVER AND OVER again, investors nowadays are being told that emerging-market assets will outperform developed ones for a long period to come — and that within emerging markets, it will be Asian assets that will do relatively better. The global crisis, it is argued, devastated the G3 — the US, Europe and Japan — leaving their consumers, financial institutions and public-sector finances in shambles. Asia, on the other hand, will enjoy the synergies from the simultaneous rise of China and India — an advantage that other emerging-market regions do not possess, so we are told. Consequently, it is taken as a given that emerging Asian assets are the place to be for global investors. When a view is repeated like this almost as a mantra, investors would be wise to question it. The likelihood is that such an opinion is too simplistic and investors should incorporate into their investment strategy a more nuanced view.
Manu Bhaskaran: The bull case for Taiwan
September 19th, 2009 |
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ALTHOUGH MANY OF its best companies have gone from strength to strength, the Taiwanese economy has lost considerable momentum in the past 10 years. Economic growth has slowed this decade by roughly one percentage point compared with the average of the past two decades.
Foreign businesses have become less attracted to the country. Taiwanese companies have invested heavily abroad while largely shunning their own economy. Taiwanese wealth has also flowed out of the country to the tune of US$200 billion ($283 billion) to US$300 billion since 2000. We believe there is now a good chance that all this is set to change.
Manu Bhaskaran: Should Singapore’s policies change with the emerging recovery?
September 5th, 2009 |
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WITH THE ECONOMIC data now clearly pointing to recovery, policy makers are raising the issue of the exit from the ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies they employed to prevent a major economic depression last year. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner recently observed that while it was still premature to withdraw policy accommodation, it was not too early to talk about it. In Asia, South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun has said his country would implement an exit plan only gradually, noting at the same time that countries had to co-operate in doing so. Clearly, as the global economic and policy context changes, Singapore will also have to consider changes to the monetary, fiscal and other policies it undertook in response to the crisis.
Manu Bhaskaran: Japan on the brink of change: What does it mean for Southeast Asia?
August 22nd, 2009 |
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On Aug 30, Japanese voters are likely to take the momentous step of ousting the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled Japan for most of the past 54 years, and replace it with the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). How much real change will this mean for Japan and what implications will it have for us in Southeast Asia?
Manu Bhaskaran: What can go wrong
August 8th, 2009 |
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ASSET MARKETS HAVE soared while upside surprises in economic data releases have maintained the momentum of optimism. There is growing confidence that economies are not only bottoming out but that a sustainable recovery that brings the global economy back to normalcy is now very likely. Unlike late 2008, there is now little fear of new financial shocks severe enough to cause systemic damage. But, as the optimism grows, the wiser investor should be looking out for what can go wrong. After all, the recent crisis taught us a thing or two about being cautious about asset price booms.
Manu Bhaskaran: What can go wrong
August 8th, 2009 |
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ASSET MARKETS HAVE soared while upside surprises in economic data releases have maintained the momentum of optimism. There is growing confidence that economies are not only bottoming out but that a sustainable recovery that brings the global economy back to normalcy is now very likely. Unlike late 2008, there is now little fear of new financial shocks severe enough to cause systemic damage. But, as the optimism grows, the wiser investor should be looking out for what can go wrong. After all, the recent crisis taught us a thing or two about being cautious about asset price booms.
Manu Bhaskaran: Reassessing Singapore’s economic future
July 25th, 2009 |
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ONCE THE GLOBAL major changes in the developed economies, which have been the principal economic partners for Singapore. Separately, other trends unrelated to the crisis that have been underway for some time will reach a point where they will have a substantial impact on Singapore. Given these momentous changes, it is timely for Singaporeans to take a step back and think hard about how Singapore should respond. In this context, it is encouraging to see the establishment of the Economic Strategies Committee, which will study some key areas of the local economy and make recommendations for policy changes.