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Tories unveil NHS database plans

Computer keyboard

The Conservatives have promised huge cost savings for the NHS by scrapping government plans for a central database of patient records.

Proposals include electronic medical notes being stored locally by GPs and hospitals and patients having online access to their medical records.

IT firms such as Google or Microsoft could host the information.

But the government said the Conservatives’ plans raised concerns about patient confidentiality.

The Tories are promising NHS trusts a choice of computer systems, rather than having a single one imposed.

Every patient would have a username and password and could update their records with information like blood pressure and cholesterol levels.

Behind schedule

Shadow health minister Stephen O’Brien told BBC Radio 4′s Today programme: "We want to give patients the ability to give themselves greater control over their information."

He added: "If we hold the data locally it’s more likely to be protected than within this massive [NHS] database…

"There’s always a need to protect data, whether it’s in the public or private sector.

"What has to happen is to focus on patients’ health and improve their outcomes."

The £12bn NHS programme in England – the world’s largest civilian IT scheme – has been dogged by problems since its launch in 2002.

It aims to replace hundreds of different computer systems in hospitals and GP practices with compatible versions which allow staff to access patients’ medical records.

"NHS IT will only succeed in improving patient care if information is held locally and centred on the patient"

Dr Glyn Hayes

It is thought the project is five years behind schedule.

Although some parts have been implemented successfully, there have been problems in upgrading computer systems in hospitals and setting up the electronic patient record.

The Tories say contracts in place with IT service providers – two out of four of whom have already pulled out – should be brought to a halt and renegotiated to "prevent further inefficiencies".

But Health Minister Ann Keen said: "The Tories need to make it very clear how their plans will ensure patient confidentiality.

"We have already set out our plans to give patients greater access to health information, for example through Healthspace where patients can see their summary care record."

A Department of Health spokesman said: "Patients are now directly benefiting from the modernisation of NHS IT – including being able to make their first outpatient appointment through Choose and Book, new digital images and a new electronic prescriptions service."

He added that the programme was already being delivered locally, with "detailed care records" continuing to be held in an electronic form.

The government has made it clear to the companies contracted to deliver the upgrades that it expects further significant progress by the end of November, he said.


This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

Fast-tracked flu vaccine ‘will be safe’

• EU accelerates approval process for treatment
• WHO chief warns of dangers of untested jabs

The World Health Organisation has raised concerns about the fast-track production of the swine flu vaccine in Europe, where the treatment is due to be made available at least two months earlier than in the US. Britain is expected to be the first country in Europe to provide the vaccine, with the first of 132 million ordered doses due to be administered next month.

The European Medicines Agency (EMA), the drug regulatory body for the EU, is accelerating the approval process for the vaccine, and countries including Britain, Greece, France and Sweden plan to start using it as soon as it is cleared. The most vulnerable groups, such as pregnant women and young children, will be given priority.

To ensure the vaccine is available as soon as possible, the EMA is allowing companies to bypass large-scale human trials. Amid concerns about bird flu several years ago, the EMA designed a protocol to fast-track the approval of a vaccine. It let companies submit data for a “mock-up” vaccine, using H5N1 avian flu. The idea was to do most of the testing before a pandemic, so that when it hit, the drug companies could insert the pandemic virus into the vaccine.

When the first doses are ready, the EMA will approve them largely based on data from the bird flu vaccine, since both will have the same basic ingredients. The agency will then require regular reporting of the vaccine’s effects as it is being administered, monitoring that is normally done beforehand.

The US government is taking a more cautious approach, calling for several thousand volunteers to be injected with the vaccine in tests beginning in August to assess its safety. Officials say the results should be ready in time for the vaccination programme to roll out in October.

But some US officials believe the European approach is the best option. “The consequences of not having a vaccine if this virus gets worse are very high,” said Leonard Marcus, a public health expert at Harvard University. “If [regulatory authorities] took all the time that was necessary to make sure there are no side effects, ironically, in the effort to save a few lives, many lives could be lost.”

An EMA spokesman said: “Everybody is doing the best they can in a situation which is far from ideal. With the winter flu season approaching, we need to make sure the vaccine is available.”

Dr Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s flu chief, warned about the potential dangers of untested vaccines. “There are certain areas where you can make economies, perhaps, but certain areas where you simply do not try to make any economies,” he told Associated Press.

The Department of Health said it was “extremely irresponsible” to suggest the UK would use an unsafe vaccine. A spokesman said: “In preparing for a pandemic, appropriate trials to assess safety and the immune responses have been carried out on vaccines very similar to the swine flu vaccine. The vaccines have been shown to have a good safety profile. Over 40,000 doses of the vaccines which the swine flu vaccines are based on have been given without any safety concerns.”

Professor Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of GPs, added: “I’m sure the vaccine programme won’t be allowed to commence until adequate safety checks have been carried out.”

Earlier this month the head of the WHO, Dr Margaret Chan, said that while a vaccine might be produced next month the clinical trial data to ensure it was safe would not be available for a further two to three months.

Pharmaceutical companies, including GlaxoSmithKline, which is producing the vaccine for Britain, insist they will be able to start shipping the first batches of vaccine before then.

Meanwhile the House of Lords science and technology committee is expected to accuse ministers of failing to keep their promise to set up a flu helpline by April and question the conflicting advice given to the public, in particular to vulnerable groups such as expectant mothers.

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Peers to criticise swine flu response

House of Lords committee expected to accuse ministers of failing to keep promise to set up swine flu helpline by April

A parliamentary committee is expected to criticise the government for the delay in setting up the national pandemic flu helpline and for giving confusing advice to vulnerable groups and NHS staff.

The House of Lords science and technology committee is expected to accuse ministers of failing to keep their promise to set up a flu helpline by April, according to the BBC.

The report will question the confusing and conflicting advice given to the public, in particular to vulnerable groups such as expectant mothers.

The Department of Health was accused of causing confusion after posting a document on its website reiterating previously issued advice to delay conception during the swine flu pandemic.

The DoH said the advice was based on predictions for a pandemic involving bird flu, and denied that its advice to expectant mothers ‑ which says they should not alter their behaviour but should “avoid crowds and unnecessary travel” ‑ was conflicting.

Publication of the critical report comes as ministers attempt to quell swine flu hysteria, amid concerns that the NHS might be overwhelmed by hordes of “unnecessarily anxious” people who could make a full recovery at home.

The health secretary, Andy Burnham, warned that panic itself could push services to breaking point. Health department officials said there was a danger of a “panic pandemic” that could hinder the treatment of serious cases.

The government faced criticism last week when the pandemic flu helpline and website was finally launched. The site was inaccessible minutes after its launch, overwhelmed by demand. It took more than an hour before the technical difficulties were resolved.

Officials said the service was now “working well”, and more than 5,500 people obtained antiviral drugs on the launch day.

The Sunday Telegraph said the NHS would be further strained by European rules limiting the hours doctors can work, which are due to come into force on Saturday. It reported that the changes could leave the NHS short of doctors just as pressure on hospitals caused by the swine flu outbreak intensifies.

The paper said maternity units were planning to cancel home births and planned caesarean sections if the outbreak worsened.

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Minister: swine flu panic is danger to NHS

• ‘Pandemic’ of fear is worsening crisis
• Worried well will swamp GP surgeries

Ministers moved to quell swine flu hysteria last night, as concerns grew that the National Health Service might be overwhelmed by hordes of “unnecessarily anxious” people who could make a full recovery at home.

Amid rising government worry about how NHS staff will cope as the virus spreads, health secretary Andy Burnham warned that panic itself could push services to breaking point. Health Department officials said there was a danger of a “panic pandemic” that could hinder the treatment of more serious cases.

Calling for calm, Burnham said that although swine flu presented a huge challenge for the country, it was not a life-threatening condition for the vast majority of people.

He told the Observer that it was vital not to over-react and claimed the government had the situation under control. “It is very important for everybody to keep a sense of perspective,” he said. “It has been a mild virus in the vast majority of cases, with relatively mild symptoms from which people recover fully fairly quickly.

“If people are made unnecessarily anxious, it makes the lives of NHS professionals, who are already under enormous pressure, far more difficult as people become unduly worried.”

He added: “People should be assured that we have been planning our response to a pandemic for a long time.”

Health officials are also concerned at rising levels of fear among parents who know that children are particularly susceptible to the H1N1 virus.

Doctors last night tried to reassure families that the vast majority of young people would get better without a visit to their GP’s surgery or a hospital.

Professor Terence Stephenson, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health. said: “Health services struggle when they are overwhelmed by people who don’t need to be there.

“Our first message to parents of young children is to keep this in perspective and keep calm. There are 11 million children in England and 256 of them are in hospital [with swine flu]. For the four families where children have died, it is an absolute tragedy, but if you are talking about a previously healthy child where swine flu has led to their death, there have been none.”

Last Thursday, the Health Protection Agency said that GP consultation rates had risen sharply in the past week, with children under 14 the worst affected group. The over-65s continued to show a much slower rate. The HPA estimated that there had been 100,000 cases in England in the past week. Overall, 26 people have died.

A Department of Health spokesman said that last week’s launch of a helpline for sufferers had already eased pressure on surgeries. Figures released last night showed that the service enabled 5,500 people to receive antivirals on its first day of operation. Some 58,000 people used the service, 89% of whom used the self-assessment scheme on the internet.

Burnham said: “People in need of antivirals are able to get them quickly and conveniently using the new service, and it is freeing up GPs to look after patients in risk groups as well as those with other illnesses.”

He made it clear that he was angry with Andrew Lansley, the Tory health spokesman, for criticising his decision to delay the setting up of the helpline. Lansley described it as “too little, too late”. Burnham said the comment was “unhelpful” and insisted that doctors had urged him to hold back from setting up the line until H1N1 had spread more widely.

Burnham also pointed out that, over the past 12 years, there had been around 8,000 flu deaths a year in England and Wales.

Meanwhile, ministers – afraid of stoking more “crisis” headlines – refused to be drawn on whether Parliament would have to be recalled if the number of cases continued to escalate at the same rate, or on whether the country had sufficient intensive care beds.

Although Stephenson moved to reassure parents, he said contingency plans were in place. These included plans to move children into intensive care beds meant for adults. The NHS has 300 intensive care beds for children and 3,000 for adults.

He also said that hospitals could increase recruitment, while cancelling planned admissions.

Professor Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said that too many people who were not unwell were turning up at surgeries: “There’s too much preoccupation with the threat of death. The numbers of people getting influenza are still tiny. The reality is, that for most people it’s a basically mild illness, and we are losing sight of that.”

Field argued that it was crucial for there to be no unnecessary pressure on GPs or hospitals, partly because they needed to prepare for later in the year. “This is almost like the phoney war at the moment,” he said. “The big danger and real threat is that there will be a big spike in the numbers of people with influenza in the autumn.

“People should regard the phase we’re in now as a practice for far more people having it over a sustained period of a few weeks in the autumn. If that happens, we will have learned valuable lessons from what we’re doing now.”

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Catacombs may be swine flu morgue

Exeter city council plans to use 19th century burial chambers as emergency mortuary if pandemic worsens

A city council is considering using 19th century catacombs to store the bodies of swine flu victims if the outbreak worsens, it was confirmed today.

Exeter city council has identified the empty underground burial chambers, currently used as a tourist attraction, as a potential mortuary.

A council spokesman said the plan would be implemented if the crematorium and cemeteries could not keep up with funeral demands.

“We have some empty catacombs in an old cemetery in the city,” he said. “These are 19th century underground burial chambers which are normally a tourist attraction. They can, however, be safely used for their original purpose and allow us to temporarily store bodies in the remote possibility that the need should arise.”

So far at least 31 people have died in the UK after contracting the virus. Yesterday, the World Health Organisation said 800 people had now died worldwide from the H1N1 virus and as many as 2 billion people could eventually be infected.

Doctors have warned that NHS intensive care wards could be overwhelmed by severely ill swine flu patients if infection rates climb rapidly.

The growing pressure on critical care beds was underlined this week when a pregnant 26-year-old was flown from a hospital in Kilmarnock to Sweden for life-saving treatment because of a shortage of equipment in Britain. Sharon Pentleton’s family said she was gravely ill, but her doctors believe she has a good chance of recovery.

According to Dr Alan Hay, director of the WHO’s London-based world influenza centre, the first wave of UK infections is likely to peak within the next week or two before re-emerging in the winter.

Research published in the journal Anaesthesia suggests that when the peak comes, demand for intensive care beds could outstrip supply by 130% in some regions, while the demand for ventilators could exceed supply by 20%. Paediatric facilities are likely to become “quickly exhausted” as hospitals confront “massive excess demand”, according to experts in intensive care and anaesthesia from the University of Cambridge, the Intensive Care Society and St George’s Healthcare NHS trust in London.

The Department of Health said the NHS was prepared for the pandemic. “Guidance has been issued which contains information for primary and secondary care services in the UK on managing surge capacity and the prioritisation of services and patients during a widespread influenza outbreak,” a spokesman said.

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Nurses ‘neutral’ on assisted suicide

The Royal College of Nursing has today dropped its five-year opposition to the principle of assisted suicide after a consultation with its members.

Almost half (49%) of its members said they supported assisted suicide, while two out of five (40%) said they were against it.

The move comes as a poll in today’s Times found that 74% of people want doctors to be allowed to help terminally ill people end their lives.

The survey found that six out of 10 people said they wanted friends and relatives to be able to help their dying loved ones to take their own lives, without fear of prosecution.

But it also found that only 13% supported a blanket right to assisted suicide regardless of the individual’s health, while 85% said it should be legal only “in specific circumstances”. The Royal College of Nursing has opposed assisted suicide since 2004, but now has a neutral stance. It plans to issue detailed guidance to nurses on the issue, as the consultation also revealed a need for information.

Dr Peter Carter, the college’s chief executive, said: “We fully support the common themes that came through the consultation, namely maintaining the nurse-patient relationship, protecting vulnerable patients and making sure there is adequate investment in end-of-life care.”

Sandra James, chairwoman of the RCN’s council, said: “In reaching our decision we considered individual members’ opinions as well as the views from RCN branches and forums, and non-RCN affiliated bodies.” In July doctors at the British Medical Association stuck by their opposition to assisted suicide. It followed high-profile cases involving Britons using the Dignitas clinic in Switzerland.

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I’ll be hate figure, says top Tory

Prepare for rapid post-election budget and deep spending cuts – Hammond

David Cameron may be forced to stage a rapid post-election budget to calm the markets and prevent a drop in Britain’s credit rating in the first days of a Tory government, Philip Hammond, the shadow Treasury chief secretary, warns in a Guardian interview today.

Anticipating an era of deep short-term cuts in public spending, Hammond urges voters to give the Conservatives a big majority so a new government can act boldly to cut the public debt, warning that the public finances are in such a state “the worst outcome for Britain would be an unclear political result at the election”.

Hammond, destined to be the man to rein in public spending if the Tories gain power, also concedes he is “likely to become a great figure to pin up on the dartboard, and throw darts at. I am sure there will be short-term pain and brickbats.”

But he argues: “It is absolutely not the case that people in the public services are dreading this, or saying ‘oh my God, what is going to happen?’ ” He claims civil servants are preparing to make cuts without waiting for instructions from on high. “There is a sense of liberation that we are going to empower public sector professionals to undertake the reform.”

Setting out Tory ideas, Hammond discloses there will have to be a budget either soon after a spring election, or in the autumn, so the Conservatives can start to rein in public spending next year.

He warns that Britain’s credit-worthiness could be downgraded, pushing the economy into crisis. Such a move, which has been threatened by the international credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s, would make it much more expensive to pay back the national debt, which this week reached a record £799bn.

He said: “We have got this Damocles’ sword of Standard and Poor’s hanging over us, with the commitment they have made to review Britain’s credit rating in the summer of 2010 after the general election. Everybody in Britain has a vital interest in ensuring that the triple A credit rating agency is maintained.”

“It is absolutely essential that we send a signal to the markets that we have a credible plan to resolve the fiscal crisis and the debt crisis over a sensible period time,” he says.

He warns that it would be dangerous to assume the government could do whatever it likes without getting a market reaction. Implying that the Tories will regard it as necessary to hold an emergency budget, he says: “I think the markets will expect to see early action because we have made it clear that we will start the process in 2010 whereas Labour has said it won’t start the process until 2011-12. Early action adds credibility.”

Hammond was speaking as the latest economic figures publishedtoday showed worse than expected second quarter growth figures, with a fall of 0.8%, worse than the consensus forecast of a 0.3% fall.

His remarks come after analysis for the Guardian, carried out by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, showed that Britain would face spending cuts of more than 16% to key public services if Labour and the Tories live up to their pledge of protecting schools, hospitals and defence.

He said one of the first tasks of an incoming Treasury team, in examining when to hold the special budget will be the reaction of the markets, and whether the economy is “going to get anywhere near” the government’s forecast of 3.5 % growth in 2011.

Hammond also discloses that the Conservatives may try to speed up the Labour timetable to reduce the deficit, and intends to place most of the burden for that deficit reduction on spending cuts, because the current level of projected debt in relation to GDP – about 56% – is unsustainable. He also says he is worried that there are not enough civil servants in Whitehall with experience of cutting services. “There are a lot of civil servants in key posts who have never had to deal with the spending restraint … likely to be required now,” he says.

He also rejects growing right wing calls to drop David Cameron’s pledge that the NHS budget will be protected from cuts and rise at least in line with inflation.

He admits that he had come to the issue of ring-fencing the NHS budget as a sceptic on the basis that a lot of money had gone in and productivity had fallen. But he said:”The pressure of demography is so inexorable that the NHS is going to struggle to deliver the kind of service people expect even with modest real terms increases in budgets.”

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Hospitals face swine flu bed shortage

Children’s units in hospitals will be particularly vulnerable, researchers predict

The swine flu pandemic could cause a severe shortage of intensive care beds in hospitals, especially in children’s units, experts warned today.

More than double the present number of beds may be needed in some regions, while there could also be shortages of ventilators to help patients breathe.

Facilities for children were likely to become quickly exhausted, while hospitals could face massive extra demand, researchers said in the journal Anaesthesia. Hospitals in the south-east, south-west and east of England, as well as the east Midlands, were likely to be hardest hit.

The predictions came as a pregnant woman from Scotland, critically ill with swine flu, was flown for specialist treatment to Sweden because the five beds at the UK specialist centre for her condition in Leicester were full.

As Alan Hay, an expert in swine flu, suggested that the first wave in the UK may be passing its peak before returning this winter, specialists in intensive care and anaesthesia from the University of Cambridge, the Intensive Care Society and St George’s Healthcare NHS Trust in London said English hospitals might be unable to cope with the number of people who fell ill with swine flu.

At present, the government says 840 people are in hospital in England – 63 in intensive care. An estimated 100,000 people fell ill last week, double the previous week’s total.

The intensive care experts predicted London would have enough beds and ventilators but demand for beds could be 130% above supply in the South East Coast Strategic Health Authority area and 120% above supply in the south-west. Similar levels of demand could occur in the east Midlands and east of England. Across the whole of England, demand for beds could be 60% above numbers available. The government has insisted it can cancel non-emergency operations to free up beds for swine flu patients, but the experts did not believe this would be sufficient.

“Only 10% of critical care beds in England are in specialist paediatric units, but best estimates suggest 30% of patients requiring critical care will be children,” said their paper.

“Paediatric intensive care facilities are likely to be quickly exhausted and suggests that older children should be managed in adult critical care units to allow resource optimisation.”

Ari Ercole, from Cambridge University, who worked on the study, said the researchers recognised the pandemic was in its early stages. “However, based on figures provided by the 10 regional health authorities and using the Flusurge model developed by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in the US, we can see that hospitals would face a massive excess demand even if the pandemic lasted an optimistic 12 weeks.

“Paediatric intensive care facilities for children under 15 would be quickly exhausted, as they make up 10% of our current provision but could face 30% of the demand for pandemic related beds. Early experience of the present strain suggests that the attack rate is particularly high in the young and that this virus may severely compromise the immune system of people who contract it.”

The team behind today’s UK research calculated an average of 4.5 critical care beds per 100,000 people in England would be needed. In London, there are 7.5 per 100,000, 5.9 in the north-east, five in the north-west and 4.4 in Yorkshire and the Humber.

The lowest number of beds is in the south-east, which has three per 100,000 people. They said that, using numbers based on historical assumptions, “it has been shown that a flu epidemic could potentially overwhelm critical care bed and ventilator capacity in England”.

While extra beds could be made available by cancelling routine operations, “this would have important implications for ongoing acute and elective service provision”.

They said the total number of critical care beds in England currently stands at 2,030 adult beds and 265 for children.

An additional 1,607 adult high dependency beds are also available alongside 43 high dependency beds for children, which could be used to ventilate people.

“Nevertheless the calculations still show that even this number could be far too small to cope with demand.

“Additionally, since many intensive care units (and acute hospital beds) run at high occupancy, much of this capacity would not be available during a pandemic,” the paper said.

“Whilst regional variations in critical care provision exist, the data suggests that these are small and so inter-hospital transfer is unlikely to provide a solution to an overwhelming pandemic.”

Professor David Menon, one of the authors from the University of Cambridge, said the figures used in the research could fall on the conservative side.

It was possible that four times as many patients would be admitted to hospital as suggested, of whom about half would need intensive care.

He also said that between 10% and 50% of patients in intensive care with swine flu were suffering renal failure and requiring kidney support.

“If it’s 10% then we should be able to cope reasonably well but if it’s 50% then it would be a big task,” he said.

“We don’t have the equipment to deliver that level of support.”

In an accompanying editorial, Dr Jonathan Handy, a consultant at the Chelsea and Westminster hospital in London, said the predicted demand levels suggested immediate action was needed, from stockpiling supplies to looking at how medical students could play an active role in patient care.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Health said: “We can’t be certain how the current pandemic will develop, but we have to prepare for the reasonable worst case.

“As part of our preparations, guidance has been issued which contains information for primary and secondary care services in the UK on managing surge capacity and the prioritisation of services and patients during an influenza widespread outbreak.

“The guidance also identifies how maintaining an essential health service will be a community effort involving self care, support for those for whom hospital admission is not deemed appropriate, and supporting early discharge of patients from hospital.”

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World swine flu death toll tops 700

Pregnant women may be advised to stay home if outbreak worsens in autumn, chief medical officer says

More than 700 people have died from the swine flu virus worldwide since H1N1 emerged in April, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said.

Twenty-nine of those deaths have been in the UK but the WHO is no longer giving country-by-country breakdowns.

The global death toll is about 300 up on the 429 reported two weeks ago but since then countries have been told there is no longer any need to report infections.

The figure compares with 262 confirmed deaths from bird flu in 15 countries since 2003.

The WHO report of deaths came as Britain’s chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said pregnant women, cancer patients on chemotherapy and others with weakened immune systems may be advised to stay away from crowds for “a few weeks” when the swine flu pandemic reaches its height, probably this autumn.

Mothers-to-be are at present not being recommended to cut back on normal activities such as going to work, using public transport or attending events and family gatherings, but that could change if swine flu reached a level of, for example, one in three of the population.

But Donaldson also said some pregnant women may wish to exercise their choice now “on a highly precautionary basis, to avoid large, densely populated gatherings where they have little control over personal contact”.

Donaldson has been attempting to clarify official advice since confusion emerged at the weekend over exactly what it meant.

Guidance was posted on the Department of Health website yesterday and this morning the chief medical officer returned to the subject on GMTV.

“We are not advising pregnant women to cut down on their normal daily activity – some might choose to be very precautionary and not want to go into crowded places, but that is not the advice,” he said.

“But we will look at it again when it comes to the autumn when we get possibly big numbers of cases.

“If we got, for example, one in three of the population affected by flu, which is one of the estimates, at that point I may advise pregnant women and people for example on cancer treatment who have weakened immune systems to avoid crowded places for a period of a few weeks when it is at its peak.”

His remarks came as ministers were urged to rethink their policy of keeping schools open through the pandemic after research showed that a shutdown would curb the spread of infection and limit the number of deaths.

Two infectious disease experts said school closures should be considered to reduce the number of cases and buy time until a vaccine is available.

Schools across Britain have broken up for summer holidays and experts hope this will help to slow the spread of the virus. But there are fears that when classes resume in the autumn the number of cases will increase rapidly.

School closures would cause serious difficulties for working parents, lead to a 1% loss in GDP through absenteeism and see as many as 30% of NHS staff taking time off just when they are needed to treat patients.

In a study published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases, government adviser Prof Neil Ferguson and Dr Simon Cauchemez, both of the department of infectious disease epidemiology, Imperial College London, said “prolonged” closures could reduce the scale of the outbreak by 13-17% and at the pandemic’s peak the shutting of schools could bring down the number of cases by 38-45%.

“It is therefore hoped that closure of schools during the pandemic might break the chains of transmission, with the following potential benefits: reducing the total number of cases; slowing the epidemic to give more time for vaccine production; and reducing the incidence of cases at the peak of the epidemic, limiting both the stress on healthcare systems and peak absenteeism in the general population, and thus increasing community-wide resilience,” the researchers said.

Such a move would also raise the question of what should be done with millions of schoolchildren during a prolonged shutdown, they added. The authors said that governments in Europe and America might have to take such a step after they studied the impact of school closures during flu epidemics in other countries stretching back to 1918.

They say that study of the 1918 flu outbreak in America and Australia indicates that shutting schools, in tandem with closing churches and improved hygiene, could have reduced the death toll by between 10% and 30%, and as much as 50% in some cities at the height of the outbreak.

About 100 schools closed after the start of the outbreak in May but soon reopened when official advice changed because swine flu was becoming so prevalent.

Donaldson responded coolly to the idea during his GMTV appearance. “I think it would take a lot for us to move in that direction. It would be extremely disruptive to society. When would you open them again, given that flu might be around for several months?

“If we look at what we did in the west Midlands for example, where we did very aggressively initially close schools and treat people with Tamiflu who didn’t have symptoms but were contacts of cases, eventually it broke out of the box and spread more widely.”

He added: “I think we will obviously keep all of these things under review as we do with any scientific advice, but at the moment I think it is unlikely.”

The WHO said “it is really up to individual countries to consider what mitigation measures suit them in regard to the situation in individual countries”.

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Shut schools to save lives, ministers told

Slowing spread of virus would give more time to develop vaccine

Ministers were urged tonight to rethink their policy of keeping schools open through the swine flu pandemic after research showed that a shutdown would curb the spread of infection and limit the number of deaths.

As Andy Burnham, the health secretary, announced that a flu helpline to take the pressure off GPs’ surgeries would go live this week, two infectious disease experts said school closures should be considered to reduce the number of cases and buy time until a vaccine is available.

Schools across Britain have now broken up for summer holidays, and experts hope this will help to slow the spread of the virus. But there are fears that when classes resume in the autumn the number of cases will increase rapidly.

School closures would cause serious difficulties for working parents, lead to a 1% loss in GDP through absenteeism and see as many as 30% of NHS staff having to take time off just when they are needed to treat growing numbers of patients.

In a study published in the today Lancet , Government adviser Professor Neil Ferguson and Dr Simon Cauchemez, both of the department of infectious disease epidemiology, Imperial College London, said “prolonged” closures could reduce the scale of the outbreak by 13-17% and at the pandemic’s peak shutting schools could bring down the number of cases by 38-45%.

“It is therefore hoped that closure of schools during the pandemic might break the chains of transmission, with the following potential benefits: reducing the total number of cases; slowing the epidemic to give more time for vaccine production; and reducing the incidence of cases at the peak of the epidemic, limiting both the stress on healthcare systems and peak absenteeism in the general population, and thus increasing community-wide resilience,” the researchers said.

Such a move would also raise the question of what should be done with millions of schoolchildren during a prolonged shutdown, they added. The authors said that governments in Europe and North America might have to take such a step after they studied the impact of school closures during flu epidemics in other countries stretching back to 1918.

They say that study of the 1918 flu outbreak in America and Australia indicates that shutting schools, in tandem with closing churches and improved hygiene, could have reduced the death toll by between 10% and 30%, and as much as 50% in some cities at the height of the outbreak.

About 100 schools closed after the start of the outbreak in May, but soon reopened when official advice changed because swine flu was becoming so prevalent.

Last night the schools department said it was sticking with the current guidance, which is not to close schools. Ed Balls, schools secretary, said: “Now that the virus is established in the community, expert advice is that there is no longer a strong case for closing schools to contain the spread of infection. We will be monitoring the situation closely over the school holidays and will review the evidence in late August.”

The department’s emergency planning group, Cerg, is now solely concerned with orchestrating schools’ response to the spread of swine flu and updating ministers daily on the situation.

Professor Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners, said ministers should keep open the possibility of school closures. “It’s something that shouldn’t be discounted if it’s the height of the pandemic,” he said. “It would depend on how the pandemic has developed. The Lancet study demonstrates that it would slow down the transmission of the virus and might cut down the number of people who get serious illness and who die.”

Mick Brookes, general secretary of the National Association of Headteachers, called for a balanced view of the risks. “Even one person dying is a tragedy but if the mortality rate is the same of any other flu that needs to be kept in perspective,” he said. “If more and more people become infected closures may well become inevitable. Younger children are more at risk so it might be right to close early years centres and nurseries first.”

Martin Ward, deputy general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said schools could set up internet-based classrooms if there were long-term school closures. “But with the best will in the world they are not going to make the progress they would have if they had been in school,” he said.

Pregnant women may want to steer clear of crowded places in order to reduce their chances of catching the virus, the government’s chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said yesterday. The swine flu virus’s current known level of risk meant that expectant mothers should not stop using public transport, going to work or attending events and family gatherings, he said. But he added: “Some mothers-to-be may wish to continue their day-to-day activities but exercise their choice now, on a highly precautionary basis, to avoid large densely populated gatherings where they have little control over personal contact.”

He was trying to end the confusion over what steps pregnant women should take to avoid catching the virus after conflicting advice from medical organisations .

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Right-to-die teenager changes mind on transplant

A critically ill teenage girl who refused to have a heart transplant against doctors’ advice has changed her mind and now wants to have the life-saving operation.

Hannah Jones, 14, from Marden, Herefordshire, who has been in and out of hospital since the age of four, said in November she did not want to go through the “trauma” of any more operations.

But she has now been asked to be placed on the waiting for a heart transplant, after doctors found she had grown stronger and said that the operation would be less risky than previously thought.

“I know I decided I definitely didn’t want this, but everyone’s entitled to change their mind,” Hannah said.

Her decision is likely to focus attention once again on a number of medical and ethical questions. Last year it was reported that health officials applied to remove her from her home because they believed her parents were preventing her treatment.

Her parents, Andrew and Kirsty Jones, said it was Hannah’s decision to refuse the treatment and that she was mature enough to understand the consequences. At the time Hannah, who was then thought to be terminally ill, convinced a child protection officer to argue for the abandonment of the court action.

Doctors had warned her that the operation was risky and that even if it succeeded, she would need another heart within 10 years. Now doctors believe she could make a full recovery.

“The right side of my heart isn’t beating at all and, after lots of tests, I realised there were more benefits to having a new heart to staying like I was,” she said.

“If I had a new heart, I’d be on less tablets than I am at the moment.”

She made her decision to go on the waiting list having suffered kidney failure after her 14th birthday party. Speaking from Hereford hospital, Hannah added: “I fell ill last Sunday but I just thought I’d overdone it on my birthday. Actually, it turned out it was my kidneys.” She could not go on dialysis because her heart was too weak.

A spokesman for NHS Herefordshire said: “Our paediatricians work closely with Hannah and her family to ensure she has the care and support she needs.”

“In our discussions with Hannah we are convinced she has the maturity and experience to make decisions for herself about her treatment and truly understands the implications.”

The trust denied it had tried to make her a ward of court last year in a bid to force her to undergo a heart transplant.

“No one can be or would ever be forced to undergo an operation if they do not wish it,” the spokesman said.

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Swine flu school closures urged

Slowing spread of virus would give more time to develop vaccine

Ministers were urged tonight to rethink their policy of keeping schools open through the swine flu pandemic after research showed that a shutdown would curb the spread of infection and limit the number of deaths.

As Andy Burnham, the health secretary, announced that a flu helpline to take the pressure off GPs’ surgeries would go live this week, two infectious disease experts said school closures should be considered to reduce the number of cases and buy time until a vaccine is available.

Schools across Britain have now broken up for summer holidays, and experts hope this will help to slow the spread of the virus. But there are fears that when classes resume in the autumn the number of cases will increase rapidly.

School closures would cause serious difficulties for working parents, lead to a 1% loss in GDP through absenteeism and see as many as 30% of NHS staff having to take time off just when they are needed to treat growing numbers of patients.

In a study published in the today Lancet , Government adviser Professor Neil Ferguson and Dr Simon Cauchemez, both of the department of infectious disease epidemiology, Imperial College London, said “prolonged” closures could reduce the scale of the outbreak by 13-17% and at the pandemic’s peak shutting schools could bring down the number of cases by 38-45%.

“It is therefore hoped that closure of schools during the pandemic might break the chains of transmission, with the following potential benefits: reducing the total number of cases; slowing the epidemic to give more time for vaccine production; and reducing the incidence of cases at the peak of the epidemic, limiting both the stress on healthcare systems and peak absenteeism in the general population, and thus increasing community-wide resilience,” the researchers said.

Such a move would also raise the question of what should be done with millions of schoolchildren during a prolonged shutdown, they added. The authors said that governments in Europe and North America might have to take such a step after they studied the impact of school closures during flu epidemics in other countries stretching back to 1918.

They say that study of the 1918 flu outbreak in America and Australia indicates that shutting schools, in tandem with closing churches and improved hygiene, could have reduced the death toll by between 10% and 30%, and as much as 50% in some cities at the height of the outbreak.

About 100 schools closed after the start of the outbreak in May, but soon reopened when official advice changed because swine flu was becoming so prevalent.

Last night the schools department said it was sticking with the current guidance, which is not to close schools. Ed Balls, schools secretary, said: “Now that the virus is established in the community, expert advice is that there is no longer a strong case for closing schools to contain the spread of infection. We will be monitoring the situation closely over the school holidays and will review the evidence in late August.”

The department’s emergency planning group, Cerg, is now solely concerned with orchestrating schools’ response to the spread of swine flu and updating ministers daily on the situation.

Professor Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of General Practitioners, said ministers should keep open the possibility of school closures. “It’s something that shouldn’t be discounted if it’s the height of the pandemic,” he said. “It would depend on how the pandemic has developed. The Lancet study demonstrates that it would slow down the transmission of the virus and might cut down the number of people who get serious illness and who die.”

Mick Brookes, general secretary of the National Association of Headteachers, called for a balanced view of the risks. “Even one person dying is a tragedy but if the mortality rate is the same of any other flu that needs to be kept in perspective,” he said. “If more and more people become infected closures may well become inevitable. Younger children are more at risk so it might be right to close early years centres and nurseries first.”

Martin Ward, deputy general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said schools could set up internet-based classrooms if there were long-term school closures. “But with the best will in the world they are not going to make the progress they would have if they had been in school,” he said.

Pregnant women may want to steer clear of crowded places in order to reduce their chances of catching the virus, the government’s chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, said yesterday. The swine flu virus’s current known level of risk meant that expectant mothers should not stop using public transport, going to work or attending events and family gatherings, he said. But he added: “Some mothers-to-be may wish to continue their day-to-day activities but exercise their choice now, on a highly precautionary basis, to avoid large densely populated gatherings where they have little control over personal contact.”

He was trying to end the confusion over what steps pregnant women should take to avoid catching the virus after conflicting advice from medical organisations .

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Swine flu school closures urged

Leading experts say closures may need to be ‘prolonged’ in order to be effective

Closing schools for long periods could reduce the spread of swine flu, ease its burden on hospitals and potentially limit the number of deaths it causes, two leading experts argue today.

The fact that children are more infectious and more vulnerable to the H1N1 virus, resulting in it spreading among them at great speed, means that prolonged closure of schools is necessary, according to Dr Simon Cauchemez and Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London.

The government may need to rethink its existing policy of schools staying open during the pandemic before the UK’s 30,000 primary and secondary schools return from their summer holidays, if swine flu has become more severe by then, warn Cauchemez and Ferguson, who work in Imperial College’s department of infectious disease epidemiology.

The two experts do not specify how long any closure should last but say that it may need to be “prolonged” in order to be effective, and recommend that “it would seem sensible for all countries to at least have plans for reactive closure”.

Around 20 schools in Britain where pupils contracted swine flu were shut in May at the start of the pandemic in an effort to stop it spreading.

But that attempted containment was abandoned when the numbers of people affected rose rapidly. More than 60% of the cases of swine flu so far have been in young people aged 18 or younger, with incidence highest among five- to 15-year-olds.

Writing in the August issue of The Lancet Infectious Diseases, the authors say: “It is … hoped that closure of schools during the pandemic might break the chains of transmission, with the following potential benefits: reducing the total number of cases; slowing the epidemic to give more time for vaccine production; and reducing the incidence of cases at the peak of the epidemic, limiting both the stress on healthcare systems and peak absenteeism in the general population, and thus increasing community cohesion”.

Experience of school closures in other countries during previous flu epidemics in other countries shows that the tactic brings benefits, they say. In Israel in 2000, for example, teachers went on strike during a flu outbreak. When they did fewer people went to see their doctor or hospital emergency department and fewer patients were diagnosed with a respiratory tract infection or viral infections. But when the strike ended and schools opened again, infections resumed rising.

Similarly, a study of school holidays in France between 1984 and 2006 shows that school holidays prevent about one in six cases of flu and suggests that a policy of proactively closing schools as a preventative measure could cut the number of people getting infected by between 13% and 17% and by between 38% and 45% during the peak of the outbreak.

They also say that study of the 1918 flu outbreak in America and Australian cities indicate that shutting schools, in tandem with closing churches and improved hygiene, could have reduce the death toll by between 10% and 30%, and as much as 50% in some cities at the height of the outbreak.

However, the authors also point out that school closures have massive side effects. A 12-week closure would cost between one and six% of GDP, according to UK and American studies. And as many as 30% of the entire NHS workforce may need to be off to look after children. In addition, the question of how children who are off school should mix with each other is “a key uncertainty”.

Headteacher leaders have been calling for teachers to be among the first to be vaccinated along with healthcare workers to prevent the forced widespread closure of schools due to lack of staff.

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Swine flu: have backbone, carry on

On the NHS website, pregnant women are advised to “avoid unnecessary travel”, while the Observer concentrates on yet more extreme counsel: that women should think about avoiding conception until the pandemic is over. That was issued by Belinda Phipps, the chief executive of the National Childbirth Trust; before you run away with it, consider that it was immediately disputed by Professor Steve Field, chairman of the Royal College of GPs.

I am loth to be too strident, when there is clearly insufficient information, and equally clearly, pregnant women are at more risk than most.

The fact of having a compromised immune system – being thereby more likely to contract disease and slower to fight it off – is something most pregnant women grudgingly accept with the heft and hassle of it all. But other factors are more worrying: the possibility of miscarriage; premature labour; birth defects. Two of the 29 fatalities so far have been mothers who had just had their babies.

What strikes me is how typical it all is of advice to the pregnant, culminating in this beautifully meaningless line from the Department of Health: “We advise everybody to plan their pregnancy carefully but we are not advising women not to conceive”. Plan carefully for what, then? The weather? The social season? It all manages to be incredibly, uselessly vague, while at the same time, panic-inducingly severe.

What counts as “unnecessary”, in travel? Work? Or just parties? What’s a crowd, just the tube, or also a bus? If you shouldn’t be at work, should you even be dropping your other kids off at school? Children, for that matter, are hatcheries for viral illness, is there some way to get rid of them altogether?

For those who aren’t pregnant (on which well done, by the way), how long should you delay? The length of the entire pandemic, which could be two years? Or just until it’s out of the headlines? If you’re undergoing fertility treatment, should you stop? If you’re over 35, should you take your chances?

I think we could all cope with uncertainties if they weren’t underpinned by the constant message, tacit and spoken, that if you were just careful enough, deployed just common sense enough, abnegated your own convenience just enough, then congratulations, Madam, you and your lucky baby will be OK.

The truth is very different: the world can’t just end: perhaps some people can stay off work but you wouldn’t get sick pay for the entire gestation; besides which, you can’t preventatively avoid your existing offspring, you wouldn’t even want to avoid them if they had swine flu, you’d more likely want to look after them; you can’t unimpregnate yourself. All you can do is have some backbone and carry on. And that, by coincidence, is what these advisory bodies lack – backbone. They should admit the limits of their own knowledge, and stop this charade that everything’s under control, if only women would act responsibly.

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Mother-of-six among latest flu deaths

A woman who gave birth prematurely and a baby were revealed to be among the latest victims of swine flu as the number of UK deaths from the infection rose sharply.

Ruptara Miah, 39, had used a wheelchair for 15 years after a road accident but had brought up six daughters, relatives said. A statement from Whipps Cross hospital in east London, where she died said: “She was infected with pandemic H1N1. The trust can confirm that she had underlying health conditions.”

Her brother, Abdul Malik said she was admitted to hospital three weeks ago with a cough and chest infection, but her condition worsened and she died without regaining full consciousness. Her son, who was born prematurely, is being treated in an intensive care unit.

The baby who died on July 8 was less than six months old and was being treated at the Royal Free hospital, north London, on 8 July. A 70-year-old man also died at the Royal London hospital on Tuesday and an adult, whose age has not been revealed, died at the city’s St Thomas’ hospital earlier in the month. All the victims, the NHS said, “had serious underlying health conditions”. Tests are also being carried out on a seven-year-old Kent schoolboy who died on Tuesday to see if he had the virus. He suffered from other complications.

Professor Hugh Pennington, a leading microbiologist, yesterday questioned the Department of Health’s projection that as many as 65,000 people could die in the UK from swine flu. Pennington, chairman of an official inquiry into the Scottish E-coli outbreak of 1996, said: “There are all sorts of imponderables, which mean these figures are meaningless.”

He said the attack rate of 30% projected by the DoH was unlikely and he would be “very surprised” if the number of deaths came anywhere close to 65,000. “It would be a fantastically effective virus if it was doing that,” he said. “I’m surprised at the Department of Health putting out these figures in the way they have. I can understand them saying to emergency planners you have to be prepared but why are they going public in what seems like panic mode?”

Doubts over the government’s assertion that a vaccine would be available by the end of next month also surfaced yesterday. The government has ordered 132m doses, sufficient for everyone in the country. “If there is severe disease, countries will want to hang onto the vaccine for their own citizens,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the centre for infectious diseases research and policy at the University of Minnesota. About 70% of the world’s existing flu vaccines are made in Europe. The UK has ordered vaccines from GlaxoSmithKline and Baxter International , which have production plants in Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic.

“Pandemic vaccine will be a valuable and scarce resource, like oil or food during a famine,” said David Fidler, a professor of law at Indiana university who has consulted for the World Health Organisation.

“We’ve seen how countries behave in those situations, and it’s not encouraging.” The Department of Health insisted that its suppliers would honour their contracts.

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Swine flu cases hit 100,000

• Under fives three times more likely to need hospital
• Warning that schools may not reopen in autumn

Under-fives and pregnant women are emerging as key swine flu risk groups, according to hospital figures and the age profiles of those who have already died.

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) altered its advice this week to include the youngest age range – the under-fives – in the category of those “predominantly affected” while the Royal College of Midwives issued fresh advice todayon giving expectant women anti-viral drugs.

The shift in emphasis by health officials is a reminder that even if the final death rates from the pandemic are the same as normal seasonal flu, the social impact will be significantly different, with the disease apparently targeting the young more than elderly people. In normal seasonal flu it is the elderly who usually succumb through developing pneumonia.

Altogether, 29 people have died from swine flu in the UK. A patient from Swindon and a female tourist who died in Scotland, after being admitted to hospital in Inverness three weeks ago, are among recent deaths. Figures from the NHS in the West Midlands show that at one stage this month 23 out of the 79 patients receiving treatment in hospital for swine flu were less than five years old.

On Thursday the chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, produced statistics, based on the current outbreak, showing that under-fives were three times more likely to need inpatient care than those in other age groups.

At least five of those who died are known to have been young children or babies. The NHS in London today confirmed that a baby less than six months old was among the fatalities. Some, like nine-year-old Asmaa Hussain, from Dewsbury, who suffered from epilepsy, had other prior conditions.

The Royal College of Midwives and the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists issued joint advice on prescribing anti-virals, suggesting that pregnant women with flu symptoms be given a course of Relenza, using an inhaler.

“It is recommended for pregnant women because it easily reaches the throat and lungs, where it is needed, and does not reach significant levels in the blood or placenta,” the advice said. “This has the theoretical advantage of not affecting the pregnancy or the growing baby.”

It added: “A few cases of severe illnesses among pregnant women and infants have been reported in the UK and from other countries. These have mostly affected women with pre-existing health problems. In previous pandemics, and in reports from some countries in this pandemic, there is evidence that pregnancy can increase the risk for influenza complications for the mother and the foetus.”

As many as 100,000 people may now have contracted swine flu in the UK, if estimates released by the Health Protection Agency are correct.

Fears the potentially fatal illness meningitis could be confused with swine flu were raised today after Gemma Drury, 17, of Brimington, Chesterfield, was first diagnosed with swine flu but then rushed to hospital with meningitis days later.

The Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) suggested today that some schools and nurseries might not open as usual at the start of the autumn term due to swine flu.

The Department of Health yesterday dismissed fears that the threat of high death rates could endanger the international supply of vaccines. The UK has ordered 132m doses of vaccine, sufficient for all the UK population. The first doses could be ready as early as August.

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Swine flu may keep schools shut

Uncertainty over spread of pandemic could keep pupils away for start of autumn term

Some schools in England could remain closed in September if the swine flu pandemic escalates over the summer, the government has admitted.

The Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) said that, while it was expected schools and nurseries would open as usual at the start of the academic year, it could not be “certain what the situation will be” in the autumn.

Decisions on closures would be taken shortly before the start of the autumn term, a message to schools across the country from the department said.

The DCSF guidance, issued as many schools broke up for the summer today, said it was monitoring the spread of the H1N1 virus on a day-by-day basis. A message will be sent to schools in the last week of August telling them what to do at the start of term, it added.

The DCSF said: “As the summer term is drawing to an end, it is important to ensure that everyone will be in a position to know what will happen at the start of the autumn term.

“We expect that schools and early-years and childcare settings will reopen as usual but at this time we cannot be certain what the situation will be then; we will need to monitor developments over the summer, and take decisions based on the best advice available shortly before the start of term.”

About 1,000 schools have already recorded cases of swine flu, although most have remained open, according to the DCSF.

The message to schools follows a warning from the government’s chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, that up to 65,000 people could die from swine flu in the UK in a worst-case scenario.

A planning document published by the Department of Health yesterday suggested that if the current growth in cases was sustained, the number of cases could peak in early September, with up to 30% of the population suffering illness.

There are also suggestions the spread of the virus could begin to slow over July and August before a resurgence in the autumn when schools reopen.

Margaret Morrissey, of the lobby group Parents Outloud, said ministers should have closed schools across the country early for the summer.

“I do think the government has had a major event of mismanagement here. They should have shut down schools and public places, not for ever, but to stop the virus spreading,” she said.

In swine flu hotspots, schools should remain closed until children had been vaccinated, Morrissey suggested. “We might have to, in some schools, keep them closed until the vaccine is in place,” she said.

The campaigner also called for the government to hand money to employers so that their staff can stay at home with their children if they are affected by swine flu.

“We helped the banks out, how about helping parents?” she said.

“There could be a decision that schools have got to say to parents, ‘If your finances can be supported, do you agree with having the school closed until the children are vaccinated?’”

But she added that if it was possible to open schools in September then that should happen.

At the start of the outbreak, affected schools were closed, but the Health Protection Agency is no longer recommending that approach because swine flu is now widespread within communities.

HPA guidance says: “People are likely to be repeatedly exposed to the virus in their everyday lives. Closing a school will no longer be effective in slowing the spread of the virus as people could still be exposed outside the school.

“In some special circumstances – for example, a school with children who are particularly vulnerable to infection – then school closures might still be recommended.”

Parents expressed concern yesterday about the now rapid spread of the virus, and some admitted they were scared and unsure how to respond to the situation.

Gloria Newell, 49, a housing officer, who was picking up her nine-year-old daughter, Natasha, from St Mary’s Church of England school in Islington, north London, said: “I am just astonished. The figures are quite shocking. There seems to be nothing really in place to cope with this. We have heard about a national vaccination scheme but we do not know when it might be in place.”

In north London, another mother, Amal Khaireddine, 30, was concerned about her sons Joseph, five, Shamus, six, and Ryan, eight, all pupils at Hugh Myddelton school in Islington, where there had been several cases of swine flu. “They had sore throats and temperatures and I did what you should do and called the GP. They said … not to worry. But I think they should have been tested, some swabs should have been taken … all you are told is check the NHS website, but that is not 100% safe.”

In nearby Culpepper Gardens, Richard O’Connell, 63, said he had taken his two-year-old grandson, Alfie, to the doctor because of a high temperature and had been told not to worry. “But you do worry because you don’t know what to do … it’s all very well telling people to look at the NHS website but what of those of us who do not have a computer?”

Anne Alexander, 62, a retired playschool worker from Highbury, north London, believed the publicity was causing “mass panic”. Collecting her nine-year-old granddaughter, Niamh Stepto, from school, she said: “The reality is that it may only be as serious as normal seasonal flu.”

Paola Domizio, a pathologist and mother of year-old twins Aron and Susha, said : “I’m undecided whether to panic or not. Certainly it is alarming that so many young children may be susceptible. But what can you do? Even if you keep them in all day there are no guarantees. If a vaccine is developed I suppose children will be vaccinated, but until then all you can do is follow the guidelines. So I can’t say that I’m particularly panicking, although the figures do sound alarming.”

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UK swine flu deaths hit 29 – and could rise to 65,000

Minimum of 3,100 deaths expected, says Britain’s chief medical officer, as official toll reaches 29

Up to 65,000 people in the UK could die from swine flu if the pandemic achieves it worst possible potential, the government warned today.

The chief medical officer, Professor Sir Liam Donaldson, said that in the worst case scenario 30% of the UK population could be infected by the H1N1 virus, with 65,000 killed.

The best case scenario is that 5% of the population contract the virus, with 3,100 deaths.

The estimates were released as the government confirmed that 29 people had died in the UK after contracting swine flu.

The flu is spreading fast across much of Britain, with 55,000 new cases in England last week, according to the Health Protection Agency.

The death toll was released by the Department of Health as the Scottish health secretary, Nicola Sturgeon, announced that a female tourist who had the H1N1 virus died in hospital yesterday.

The woman, who had other serious health problems, died at Raigmore hospital in Inverness last night. It is unclear whether her death has been included in the official toll.

Donaldson warned against panic about the projected death toll from a swine flu pandemic, noting that there had been 21,000 extra deaths over the winter of 1999-2000 due to seasonal flu and this had raised little public concern.

Among new suspected swine flu cases is Cherie Blair. The barrister and wife of the former prime minister pulled out of an honorary ceremony at Liverpool Hope University after falling ill and is reported to have been given a course of Tamiflu. Tony Blair and their children have shown no signs of infection.

Health ministers from across the UK – including those from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – are attending weekly meetings of the government’s civil contingencies committee, Cobra, to assess the impact of the disease.

Information collected by the Royal College of General Practitioners’ research and surveillance centre in Birmingham, which monitors communicable and respiratory diseases, shows that the total of those affected by the H1N1 virus rose by 46% in the seven days up to last Sunday.

The rate of people diagnosed with influenza-like illness in the north of England rose from 6.6 per 100,000 of population between 29 June and 6 July to 37.2 per 100,000 between 6 and 16 July – almost six times as many.

It more than doubled in central England from 42.8 to 93.9 per 100,000 but only rose slightly in the south from 72.1 to 74.9 per 100,000. However, cases in London – a swine flu “hotspot” along with the West Midlands – declined from about 180 to 140 per 100,000. Across England, the incidence increased from 50.3 to 73.42 during that week, a rise of 46%.

Professor Steve Field, the chairman of the Royal College, said: “Swine flu is spreading rapidly across the whole of the country now. GPs are saying that they are coming under a lot of pressure from patients who have it and many GPs say that the publicity surrounding the death of six-year-old London schoolgirl Chloe Buckley has increased demand and made people more anxious, although there is no reason for them to be so.”

Children between five and 14 remain the worst affected, with an incidence rate of 160 per 100,000. The rate among under-fives is 114 per 100,000 and 89.4 among those aged 15-44.

The Royal College of GPs today complained that a submission it made to a House of Lords committee had been taken out of context. It insisted that it was “very pleased” with the responsiveness of health officials to the emergency. It had been asked to provide feedback from GPs about swine flu. Among one of the comments was that: “Family doctors also noted that conflicting advice was being provided by different agencies.”

The comment was connected to an apparent discrepancy between a message on the NHS Direct website that appears to indicate all those with confirmed swine flu will receive Tamiflu or Relenza to help reduce the virus’s severity, and separate advice from the Royal College saying doctors should use their discretion.

Field agreed there appeared to be an “inconsistency” between the two lines of advice. “The last time [the advice] was changed was to give more discretion to GPs for dealing with those outside the at-risk groups and partly to send the message to patients that they don’t all need Tamiflu,” he said.

The decision about whether to prescribe should be reached in “partnership” between doctor and patient, he said. “I don’t think it’s the GP’s job not to give it.”

The Department of Health said it did not believe there was any difference in the advice being proffered. “There’s not going to be a case of people being refused Tamiflu,” a spokeswoman said.

A GP who contacted the Guardian said the differing advice being given to GPs and patients was placing an unnecessary burden on GPs and out-of-hours care “resulting in hysteria and patients in real need being put at risk” because people were being told they needed Tamiflu “when they don’t”.

Gloucestershire police today defended a decision to send three officers wearing face masks, gloves and overalls into a house containing a suspected swine flu victim. “It was a precaution at the time but won’t necessarily become standard practice,” said a spokeswoman.

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Baby P report: staff need training to spot abuse

Many NHS doctors and nurses are inadequately prepared to spot and act upon signs of child abuse or neglect, a damning report on the aftermath of the Baby P scandal warns.

The detailed survey by the Care Quality Commission exposes a failure inside the health service even among some paediatric specialists and GPs to get to grips with the challenges of safeguarding children.

It says many clinicians have not received up-to-date mandatory training in child protection, while health visitors are overwhelmed by excessive case loads.

The review was ordered after it emerged that NHS staff in Haringey, north London, including some employed by Great Ormond Street children’s hospital, saw Baby Peter, as he is now known, on 35 separate occasions in his short life and, on all but one occasion, failed to realise he was in danger.

Highlighting the inadequate response by health trusts, Cynthia Bower, the commission’s chief executive, said: “Immediately after the Baby P tragedy, everyone agreed that everything possible must be done to prevent a recurrence. This must not prove to be hollow rhetoric. The NHS has got to play its part by getting these safeguarding measures in place.

“It is clear that safeguarding has not been as high on the agenda of trust boards as it should have been … In some cases NHS staff have not been given the support they need in terms of training and clear procedures for handling concerns. If that were to change, it would be an appropriate legacy for Baby Peter.”

The 17-month-old Baby Peter, who had been also monitored by social workers and police, was seen by a consultant paediatrician, Sabah Al-Zayyat, two days before he died in Haringey in early 2007. She had not been not given the full picture of Peter’s history before the examination, although a subsequent internal Great Ormond Street inquiry said she should have identified his injuries as signs of abuse.

After he died, Peter was found to have serious injuries including a broken back and fractured ribs. His mother, her boyfriend and a lodger were later sentenced for causing or allowing the child’s death.

The report says that only 54% of eligible NHS staff have received basic child protection training, a “worryingly low” proportion. According to the inspectors, in 20 of the primary care trusts surveyed, as few as 10% of GPs were up-to-date with what was said to be a “basic” level of training.

On health visitors, the investigation discovered that 29 out of 152 primary care trusts were dealing with caseloads of more than 500 children each, “well above [the] recommendation of 400″.

Among other findings were that only 37% of trusts have a dedicated budget for training staff in child protection issues, while 65% of GPs either do not have appropriate training or there is no data to say whether they do or don’t. Only 58% of A&E or urgent care staff have adequate training in child protection.

Last year about one in 10 GP consultations were with children aged 14 or under; nearly three million children under 16 attend A&E departments ever year.

In 2008-09, the year that the Baby P scandal erupted, more NHS trusts did admit that they could not comply with national core standards – one of which deals with child protection. The numbers declaring compliance fell marginally from nearly 97% to 94% – suggesting a slight increase in self-criticism.

More than one in 10 trusts “did not appear to comply with the statutory requirement to carry out criminal records bureau checks for all staffemployed since 2002,” the report said. “We are particularly concerned with the large proportion of trusts that do not have a process for following up children who miss outpatient appointments.”

Commenting on the findings, Jo Webber, deputy director of policy at the NHS Confederation, said: “Despite the progress many NHS organisations have made, and the commitment of individuals working in the health service, there is clearly much more that can be done to make sure children are protected properly. This means promoting a culture of questioning amongst staff.”

The Liberal Democrat health spokesman, Norman Lamb, said: “It’s disgraceful that some parts of the NHS are still failing to comply with basic child protection requirements like carrying out criminal record checks on staff.”

The health secretary, Andy Burnham, said: “I want trusts and PCTs to use this report to support a coordinated programme of action to assure and sustain essential levels of safeguarding in activities relating to children.”

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New Labour’s great mistake

The party’s robotic calculus ignored the fact that public services are about people’s real, social and emotional needs

The conversations I have had recently with senior civil servants, advisers and Labour ministers have often had a plaintive tone. Why, these people want to know, aren’t the electorate more grateful for what’s been done for them? Where’s the political reward for all the money spent on schools and hospitals and economic regeneration? Why doesn’t the country appreciate the fall in crime figures? How could voters be flirting with the cost-cutting Conservatives, when Labour’s statistics show that spending money produces measurable and improved results?

These sound like the right questions, but they aren’t. What the questioners really mean is not “Where did we go wrong?” but “What’s wrong with all of you?” And what’s wrong with us is that we’re not the automatons New Labour thought we were. We’re not remote and dispassionate observers of our society, making cool calculations about its success or failure on the basis of government-generated numbers. We’re complicated, vulnerable, emotional creatures, and we live with the consequences of official decision-making every day of our lives. What matters to us aren’t the figures we’re fed, or the targets that get hit, but what the experience feels like to us. Yet that part of the process has been almost completely neglected in official eyes.

Take the NHS. As Labour keeps reiterating, spending on health has trebled in 10 years. True, waiting lists have been cut, hospitals rebuilt, medical staff who might have gone elsewhere retained. But those things are only a part of what we value about a health service. At its essence, what we most want is care and concern, and those qualities are no longer a priority for the NHS. Filling in forms, keeping records and manipulating targets have become the explicit focus of staff concerns, and often patients are left brutally aware that their own wellbeing is the last thing on anyone’s mind.

In the past few months no one I know who has been in hospital has left without feeling distressed by the levels of incompetence and indifference among the staff. An elderly stroke victim was left weeping by the steadfast refusal of the night agency staff to bring him a bedpan or turn him at nights. The wife of a cancer patient says that, if she had not been by her husband’s side over the past year, there would have been many occasions when he would have died, because drips had run out, or medicines had been forgotten, or the wrong ones prescribed. An 80-year-old with a hip replacement was discharged on a Friday night into the care of her blind and demented husband, because the hospital staff didn’t think it their business to arrange or notify anyone of her need for aftercare.

These people don’t emerge from the system thinking how brilliant and well resourced it is. They come out grateful for having survived it, and conscious of how anxious and threatened they felt within it. They care less about gleaming new buildings than about the human relationships that take place within them – and those have been made less warm, less good and less likely to flourish precisely because of the reforms that Labour has pursued.

Our disillusionment with education has the same roots. The chief business of schools is no longer to produce educated people, but education statistics. For the first few years of Labour, the vast majority of the population could be impressed by those. But as more children went into the system, and more school-leavers emerged from it, the faster it became apparent to parents, students, employers and universities that there was a disastrous mismatch between the claims made by the figures and the reality of bored stressed and puzzlingly under-educated teenagers emerging from it.

Every part of the state has been obliged to participate in this culture, and has had its priorities skewed by it. This week Jan Berry, the senior policewoman the government appointed to look at how bureaucracy had affected the police, talked despairingly of how the police had become slaves to statistics. She said that producing and recording the official figures had now “become more important than investigation and resolving crime-related problems”.

Many of us already know that. We know it because we’ve experienced the police’s lack of interest in a crime that’s unlikely to be solved, or that won’t count towards their targets. It’s why we don’t believe the crime figures. Bike thefts, assaults on teenagers, handbag snatchings or muggings outside street-crime priority areas are all too frequently ignored.

This year we discovered that one of the principal reasons a cab-driving serial rapist in London was left free to attack women for so long was that sexual assaults, unlike car crime, didn’t feature on the Home Office priority lists. Berry is pleading for a change in the embedded culture, and for a return to problem-solving as a priority.

Doing so, though, would involve a reversal and recantation of every assumption that this Labour government has made about how to run the state. It thought it was being modern and innovative by treating the country as if it were a business, where all outcomes could be measured by putting money in and getting targets out. It made the false assumption that building a school or a sports complex was automatically an investment, just as it would be if the government were in the business of mechanising chicken factories or building car plants. It thought it could close police stations or post offices in the name of cost-cutting, with as little effect as if it were Coffee Republic shutting down some unprofitable shops. It didn’t stop to remember that the business of all public services is dealing with the needs of people, and that those are never just mechanical, but social and emotional too.

Governments cannot afford to take a business’s narrow and mechanistic view of people’s requirements, because it’s not just a collection of service providers. A government’s wider duty is to frame and structure the society in which we live. Rebuilding society was one of Labour’s explicit aims, in contrast to Mrs Thatcher’s infamous reference to there being no such thing. Yet our encounters with the state are profoundly important in shaping our culture, and every time we run up against the wooden indifference, public lies or robotic responses of officialdom we shrink into ourselves, and the bonds between all of us are weakened a little more.

Labour thought that what we prized above all else was economic efficiency. Clumsily, it tried to give it to us and, even when the evidence showed it wasn’t delivering, it went on attempting to give us statistics instead. But the priorities were wrong. What we all prize in our encounters with others is a sense of our value. We are social animals, alarmed by the uncertain world in which we live, with a profound need to be recognised, respected and responded to. We want public services to respond to us as people, and to give us the sense that we matter. It is the deepest human need, and yet this government has been oblivious to it.

When it wonders why we’re not grateful to it, the answer’s really simple. It’s the experience, stupid.

jenni.russell@guardian.co.uk

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