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Posts Tagged ‘Oceans’

Oct. 20, 1984: An Aquarium for the Ages Opens

1984: The Monterey Bay Aquarium opens in California.
The aquarium occupies the site of an old sardine cannery at the edge of Monterey Bay, one of the most fertile and diverse marine environments on earth. That diversity inspired the idea of devoting the aquarium solely to the rich marine life indigenous to its own stretch of [...]

Oceans of red ink

Comparing rich-country budget deficits

MOST rich-country governments will struggle with huge budget deficits in 2010. A decade ago small surpluses were common in many rich countries (although not in Japan), but these are long gone. As economies pull out of recession, government spending will have to be cut and, with luck, tax revenues will gradually rise again. But paying off debts will be an enormous and painful task, which could also prolong the pain inflicted by the economic slump. On Monday February 1st Barack Obama made a start for America, unveiling his budget for 2011 which proposes cutting or consolidated 120 programmes, with savings expected to total $20 billion.

Whale impaled on cruise ship bow

The Sapphire Princess arrives in Vancouver in Canada with the dead 20-metre long (70ft) fin whale wedged to its bow


World will warm faster than predicted

New estimate based on the forthcoming upturn in solar activity and El Niño southern oscillation cycles is expected to silence global warming sceptics

The world faces record-breaking temperatures as the sun’s activity increases, leading the planet to heat up significantly faster than scientists had predicted for the next five years, according to a study.

The hottest year on record was 1998, and the relatively cool years since have led to some global warming sceptics claiming that temperatures have levelled off or started to decline. But new research firmly rejects that argument.

The research, to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by Judith Lean, of the US Naval Research Laboratory, and David Rind, of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The work is the first to assess the combined impact on global temperature of four factors: human influences such as CO2 and aerosol emissions; heating from the sun; volcanic activity and the El Niño southern oscillation, the phenomenon by which the Pacific Ocean flips between warmer and cooler states every few years.

The analysis shows the relative stability in global temperatures in the last seven years is explained primarily by the decline in incoming sunlight associated with the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle, together with a lack of strong El Niño events. These trends have masked the warming caused by CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Lean and Rind’s research also sheds light on the extreme average temperature in 1998. The paper confirms that the temperature spike that year was caused primarily by a very strong El Niño episode. A future episode could be expected to create a spike of equivalent magnitude on top of an even higher baseline, thus shattering the 1998 record.

The study comes within days of announcements from climatologists that the world is entering a new El Niño warm spell. This suggests that temperature rises in the next year could be even more marked than Lean and Rind’s paper suggests. A particularly hot autumn and winter could add to the pressure on policy makers to reach a meaningful deal at December’s climate-change negotiations in Copenhagen.

Bob Henson, of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, said: “To claim that global temperatures have cooled since 1998 and therefore that man-made climate change isn’t happening is a bit like saying spring has gone away when you have a mild week after a scorching Easter.” Temperature highs and lows

1998

Hottest year of the millennium

Caused by a major El Niño event. The climate phenomenon results from warming of the tropical Pacific and causes heatwaves, droughts and flooding around the world. The 1998 event caused 16% of the world’s coral reefs to die.

1957

Most sunspots in a year since 1778

The sun’s activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle. The late 1950s saw a peak in activity and were relatively warm years for the period.

1601

Coldest year of the millennium

Ash from the huge eruption the previous year of a Peruvian volcano called Huaynaputina blocked out the sun. The volcanic winter caused Russia’s worst famine, with a third of the population dying, and disrupted agriculture from China to France.

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Scientists fear coral reef extinction

David Attenborough joined scientists today to warn that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is already above the level which condemns coral reefs to extinction, with catastrophic effects for the oceans and the people who depend upon them.

Coral reefs support a quarter of all marine life, including more than 4,000 species of fish. They also provide spawning, nursery, refuge and feeding areas for creatures such as lobsters, crabs, starfish and sea turtles.

This makes them crucial in supporting a healthy marine ecosystem upon which more than a billion people depend for food. Reefs also play a crucial role as natural breakwaters, protecting coastlines from storms.

Attenborough said the world had a “moral responsibility” to save corals. The naturalist was speaking at the Royal Society in London, following a meeting of marine biologists.

“A coral reef is the canary in the cage as far as the oceans are concerned,” said Attenborough. “They are the places where the damage is most easily and quickly seen. It is more difficult for us to see what is happening in, for example, the deep ocean or the central expanses of ocean.”

Global warming means warmer seas, which causes the corals to bleach, where the creatures lose the symbiotic algae they need to survive. Carbon dioxide also makes seas more acidic, which means the corals find it difficult to prevent their exoskeletons from dissolving.

“We’ve already passed a safe threshold for coral reef ecosystems in terms of climate change; we believe that a safe level for CO2 is below 350 parts per million,” said Alex Rogers of the Zoological Society of London and International Programme on the State of the Ocean, who helped organise today’s meeting.

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280ppm before the industrial revolution to around 387ppm today. Environmentalists say that any new global deal on climate must restrict the growth of CO2 levels to 450ppm, though more pessimistic scientists say that the world is heading for 550ppm or even 650ppm.

“When we get up to and above 450ppm, that really means we’re into the realms of catastrophic destruction of coral reefs and we’ll be moving into a planetary-wide global extinction,” said Rogers.

“The only way to get to 350ppm or below is not only to have major cuts in CO2 emissions but also to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere through measures such as geo-engineering.”

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The latest plans to cut CO2

• Project ‘could turn back clock’ on carbon dioxide
• Guardian conference will select top 10 climate ideas

Putting lime into the oceans could stop or even reverse the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere, according to proposals unveiled at a conference on climate change solutions in Manchester today.

According to its advocates, the same technique could help fix one of the most dangerous side effects of man-made CO2 emissions: rising ocean acidity.

The project, known as Cquestrate, is the brainchild of Tim Kruger, a former management consultant. “This is an idea that can not only stop the clock on carbon dioxide, it can turn it back,” he said, although he conceded that tipping large quantities of lime into the sea would currently be illegal.

The oceans are a key part of the natural carbon cycle, in which carbon dioxide is circulated between the land, seas and atmosphere. About half of the CO2 released into the air by humans each year is soaked up by the oceans. This helps slow the rate of global warming but increases ocean acidity, posing a potentially disastrous threat to marine ecosystems.

Kruger’s scheme aims to boost the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2 but to do so in a way that helps reduce rather than increase ocean acidity. This is achieved by converting limestone into lime, in a process similar to those used in the cement industry, and adding the lime to seawater.

The lime reacts with CO2 dissolved in the water, converting it into bicarbonate ions, thereby decreasing the acidity of the water and enabling the oceans to absorb more CO2 from the air, so reducing global warming.

Kruger said: “It’s essential that we reduce our emissions, but that may not be enough. We need a plan B to actually reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. We need to research such concepts now – not just the science but also the legal, ethical and governance considerations.”

Kruger’s plan was one of 20 innovative schemes proposed at the Manchester Report, a two-day search for the best ideas to tackle climate change staged by the Guardian as part of the Manchester International Festival.

A panel of experts chaired by Lord Bingham, formerly Britain’s most senior judge, will select the 10 most promising ideas. These will be featured in a report that will be published in the Guardian next week and circulated to policymakers around the world.

Climate change secretary Ed Miliband told the conference the biggest danger faced by campaigners was creating a sense of defeatism. “We need to show people how they can aggregate their individual actions and be part of a bigger whole,” he said.

Cquestrate is one of a number of so-called “geo-engineering schemes” that have been proposed to intervene in the Earth’s systems in order to tackle climate change.

Kruger admits there are challenges to overcome: the world would need to mine and process about 10 cubic kilometres of limestone each year to soak up all the emissions the world produces, and the plan would only make sense if the CO2 resulting from lime production could be captured and buried at source.

Chris Goodall, one of the experts assessing the schemes, said of Cquestrate: “The basic concept looks good, though further research is needed into the feasibility.”

Another marine geo-engineering scheme was presented by Professor Stephen Salter, of Edinburgh University.

His proposal is to build a fleet of remote-controlled, energy-self-sufficient ships that would spray minuscule droplets of seawater into the air. The droplets would whiten and expand clouds, reflecting sunlight away from the Earth and into space.

Salter said 300 ships would increase cloud reflectivity enough to cancel out the temperature rise caused by man-made climate change so far, but 1,800 would be needed to offset a doubling of CO2, something expected within a few decades.

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Meet the satnav seabird

Stubby seabird with comedy beak to help scientists investigate steep decline in seabird populations across Britain

Short, stubby and gifted with a distinctive comedy beak, the puffin is an iconic bird. But seabird may also be the bellwether for a crisis in the seas around Britain.

The puffin now has a new role, helping scientists investigate the causes of a steep decline in seabird numbers across the British Isles using miniaturised digital tracking devices, including one borrowed from in-car satellite navigation systems.

Data for last year shows puffin numbers suddenly and sharply crashed. Scientists found that on the most significant North Sea colonies, puffin populations fell by a third or more. Adult puffins were malnourished, with large numbers washed up dead along the UK’s coast.

Confronted by other evidence of a significant change in the North Sea’s health, which has led to declines of up to 40% in seabird numbers in just eight years, conservationists have begun a series of urgent studies into its possible causes. Many believe climate change is the main culprit.

On the Farne islands, a low-lying archipelago off the Northumberland coast 50 miles north of Newcastle, puffins are now being fitted with equipment which should help plug large gaps in scientific knowledge about the species and, in turn, other threatened seabirds.

Scientists will use three different devices on up to three dozen puffins: GPS monitors; “geo-locators” which work differently; and time and depth recorders.

They will monitor how and where they feed and behave once they leave their burrows on the Farnes, and track their movements while they winter at sea. Each puffin will carry only one small device which will be attached with super-strength glue onto its back.

Food is a critical issue: zoologists believe last year’s population slump – when numbers plummeted on the Farnes from 58,000 in 2003 to just 38,000 – is closely tied to a collapse in their main food source, the sandeel.

Populations of the slender, silvery fish, whose availability may be crucial to the puffins’ long-term survival, have been in decline since the 1990s because of heavy trawling for fishfarm feed and exposure to the changes in plankton distribution brought about by rising sea temperatures.

Puffins nest in dark, dry burrows that the birds carve out each spring from the soft, sandy earth, shaded by sea campion, nettles and coarse, hardy grasses. Their behaviour on land and within sight of the islands is well understood. However at sea, scientists have been largely guessing.

Dr Richard Bevan, a zoologist with Newcastle university who is leading the National Trust research on the Farnes, said: “All we can record at the nests is the number of chicks, how quickly the chicks are growing and the numbers that fledge, but what we don’t know is what they do as soon as they fly away.

“Puffins can theoretically be foraging anywhere within a 60km radius of the islands, which is a huge area for us to cover. But the further they have to forage the more energy they use, and the intervals between when they feed their chicks will increase, so chicks will be fed less and are less likely to do well.”

The results of the hi-tech monitoring will help conservationists establish whether puffins have regular feeding grounds and allow them to protect those places. Evidence that puffins spread across a wide area would present a more difficult problem, perhaps increasing pressure for a more substantial conservation effort.

That information will also help protect the significant Arctic tern, sandwich tern, guillemot and shag colonies on the Farnes, which are home to approximately 160,000 adult seabirds and their offspring.

This research could prove crucial. Last month, the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, the UK’s most authoritative conservation research agency, reported that about 600,000 seabirds had been lost since 2000, 9% of the total population. There are now 40% fewer black-legged kittiwake – another bird that feeds on sandeels – and 33% fewer European shags breeding in the UK than 40 years ago. On Shetland, globally significant colonies have collapsed.

Yet this year’s research so far has given Bevan and the trust grounds for optimism. Their trawls for sandeels around the Farnes suggested the tiny fish were, this year at least, relatively abundant. Puffins are flying in – their short wings urgently flapping 400 times a minute, with sandeels dangling from their beaks.

Bevan believes last year’s population crash may be explained by unusual north-easterly winds during last year’s breeding season, which may have cooled the seas at the wrong time. Herring – a fish which competes for sandeels – were also abundant, and may have out-eaten the puffins.

Last year’s population crash may be a blip, not a trend. But it does indicate there are changes in the marine environment which scientists do not yet understand, Bevan added.

“It’s a warning sign. I’m willing to bet that this year numbers would be up from last year, but not up to pre-2008 levels. The problem is, we don’t know what’s happening out there. There’s a change in the ecology of the North Sea. What the implications are of that, we have no idea.”

Seabirds in trouble

Black-legged kittiwake

Its numbers have fallen by 35% since 2000 due to declines in sand eels caused by overfishing and climate change. Breeding success has fallen markedly on the North Sea.

Herring gull

One of the UK’s best known gulls, notorious for scavenging from trawlers and city dumps, but is a new entry to the UK “red list” of threatened birds because its numbers are sharply falling, down by 69% since 1969 and 33% since 2000.

Arctic skua

This relatively rare inshore seabird was put on the UK’s “red list” of threatened species this year as its numbers are declining rapidly: 2,100 were counted in 2002, but it has declined by 57% since then.

Seabirds on the up

Great skua

Its numbers have rocketed by nearly 400% since 1969 and by 56% in the last eight years alone – but at the expense of others. The large scavenger has outmuscled the herring gull for trawler discards and preyed on Arctic skuas. Cuts in discarded fish suggest it will increasingly have to steal food from other seabirds to survive.

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New Orleans under sea ‘by 2100′

Scientists say between 10,000 and 13,500 square kilometres of coastal land around New Orleans will go underwater due to rising sea levels and subsidence

A vast swath of the coastal lands around New Orleans will be underwater by the dawn of the next century because the rate of sediment deposit in the Mississippi delta can not keep up with rising sea levels, according to a study published today.

Between 10,000 and 13,500 square kilometres of coastal lands will drown due to rising sea levels and subsidence by 2100, a far greater loss than previous estimates.

For New Orleans, and other low-lying areas of Louisiana whose vulnerability was exposed by hurricane Katrina, the findings could bring some hard choices about how to defend the coast against the future sea level rises that will be produced by climate change.

They also revive the debate about the long-term sustainability of New Orleans and other low-lying areas.

Scientists say New Orleans and the barrier islands to the south will be severely affected by climate change by the end of this century, with sea level rise and growing intensity of hurricanes. Much of the land mass of the barrier island chain sheltering New Orleans was lost in the 2005 storm.

But the extent of the land that will be lost is far greater than earlier forecasts suggest, said Dr Michael Blum and Prof Harry Roberts, the authors of the study. “When you look at the numbers you come to the conclusion that the resources are just not there to restore all the coast, and that is one of the major points of this paper,” said Roberts, a professor emeritus of marine geology at Louisiana State University.

Blum, who was formerly at Louisiana State University, now works at Exxon. “I think every geologist that has worked on this problem realises the future does not look very bright unless we can come up with some innovative ways to get that sediment in the right spot,” said Roberts. “For managers and people who are squarely in the restoration business, this is going to force them to make some very hard decisions about which areas to save and which areas you can’t save.”

Efforts to keep pace with the accelerated rate of sea level rise due to global warming are compromised by the Mississippi’s declining ability to bear sediments downstream into the delta.

The authors used sediment data from the Mississippi flood plain to estimate the amount of sediment deposited on the river delta during the past 12,000 years. They then compared this with sediment deposition today.

In paper published in Nature Geoscience they calculate that due to dam and levee building on the Mississippi the sediment carried by the river has been reduced significantly. There are now about 8,000 dams on the Mississippi river system. Roberts said such constructions and the system of levees in Louisiana had cut in half the sediment carried down to the delta, inhibiting the river’s ability to compensate for the land lost to rising seas.

Sustaining the existing delta size would require 18 to 24bn tonnes of sediment, which the authors say is significantly more than can be drawn from the river in its current state. “We conclude that significant drowning is inevitable,” the authors wrote. “In the absence of sediment input, land surfaces that are now below 1m in elevation will be converted to open water or marsh.”

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