South Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter
South Korea recorded real GDP growth of 2.3% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2009—a stronger performance than the Economist Intelligence Unit expected. Monthly indicators also suggest that the rate of economic contraction is slowing. As a result, we have revised up our real GDP forecast for 2009 to a relatively small fall of 1.8% (compared to our previous forecast of a 4.4% decline). We forecast real GDP growth of 2% in 2010.
Although South Korea’s economic prospects are improving, the financial and economic environment abroad remains extremely challenging and will have an adverse impact on the performance of all components of South Korean GDP. We expect private consumption to contract by 1.5% in 2009, before recording modest growth of 0.8% in 2010. This weakness reflects a number of factors. The unemployment rate is expected to rise, and the weakness of the labour market will put downward pressure on wages. In addition, economic uncertainty will undermine consumer confidence. …