RSS Feed     Twitter     Facebook

Posts Tagged ‘quarter’

Domestic despair

Ireland’s economy is in free-fall

GDP contracted by an alarming 8.5% year on year in the first quarter of 2009, while the fall in domestic demand was even more marked at 15.5%. These contractions were larger than any other high-income OECD country, reflecting the impact of the collapse in Ireland’s property market and the decimation of its construction sector. Surging job losses are now weighing heavily on private consumption and, with the public finances in disarray, the extent of downside risk to the Irish economy appears without precedent.

Ireland is mired in a recession of a different order from those being seen in its developed-economy peers. According to recently released national accounts data, GDP collapsed year on year by 8.5% in the first quarter of 2009—a sharper contraction than in any other high-income OECD country. And if the GNP (gross national product) measure of growth is used instead, which also takes into account the value of income from abroad (particularly important for economies with large traded sectors, such as Ireland) the slump is worse still, with a year-on-year fall of 12%. …

Google Q2 Profit Rises 19% amid Weak Economy

Google enjoys a small rebound in the second quarter, posting a profit of $1.48 billion on $4.66 per share, a 19 percent growth over the second quarter of 2008. Google CEO Eric Schmidt says Google is focused on innovation with the Google Chrome OS and the core search engine; these are two big weapons the search engine giant is wielding against Microsoft’s Windows operating system and Bing search engine.
– Rebounding from a lackluster first quarter, on July 16 Google reported a second-quarter profit of $1.48 billion on $4.66
per share, a 19 percent growth over $1.25 billion in profit on $3.92 per share
from the second quarter of 2008.
The search engine giant, which is fending off renewed competiti…


HP Number One Worldwide, Dell on Top in the U.S.

HP beat Dell in worldwide PC shipments for the second quarter of 2009, but in the U.S. market, aggressive pricing enabled Dell to take the lead. Acer followed in third position in the U.S., with a neck-and-neck Apple and Toshiba vying for the next two spots.
– Worldwide PC shipments totaled 68.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, Garter is reporting. The number represents a 5 percent decline from the second quarter of 2008.

IDC, in a separate July 15 report, estimates second quarter 2009 numbers including desktops and portable PCs but ex…


HP Number One Worldwide, Dell on Top in the U.S.

HP beat Dell in worldwide PC shipments for the second quarter of 2009, but in the U.S. market, aggressive pricing enabled Dell to take the lead. Acer followed in third position in the U.S., with a neck-and-neck Apple and Toshiba vying for the next two spots.
– Worldwide PC shipments totaled 68.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, Garter is reporting. The number represents a 5 percent decline from the second quarter of 2008.

IDC, in a separate July 15 report, estimates second quarter 2009 numbers including desktops and portable PCs but ex…


JPMorgan Chase profits soar 36%

JPMorgan Chase office in San Francisco

JPMorgan Chase has become the second major US bank to report a big rise in profits for the April to June period.

The firm’s net profit for the second quarter totalled $2.72bn (£1.6bn), an increase of 36% from $2bn last year.

Revenues at the company rose 41% to $27.7bn. Its results come two days after rival Goldman Sachs reported a $3.44bn second quarter profit.

Analyst Chris Hossain of ODL Securities said JP Morgan’s results reiterated growing confidence among the banks.

The company’s results were better than market expectations. </p


This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

China grows faster amid worries

toy seller in front of government slogan, Beijing, July 09

China’s annual gross domestic product has recorded an year-on-year increase of 7.9% in the second quarter of 2009, up from 6.1% in the first quarter.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced the figure and but warned that economic recovery was not yet assured.

Economists had forecast a second-quarter growth rate of 7.5%.

The government has claimed it would achieve 8% growth over the year, well ahead of much of the world.

China’s growth figures, which peaked at 10.6% in the second quarter of 2008, are widely watched for indications of recovery in world trade.

But officials said the numbers could not obscure continuing problems.

"The difficulties and challenges in the current economic development are still numerous," said spokesman Li Xiaochao at a news conference.

"The basis of the rebound of the people’s economy is not stable," he said.

"The base for recovery is still weak. Growth momentum is unstable. The recovery pattern is unbalanced and thus there are still uncertain and volatile factors in the recovery process," the NBS said in a statement distributed ahead of a news conference.

It said that urban per capita incomes were up 11.2% from a year earlier and that real rural per capita incomes were up 8.1%.

Meanwhile, China’s consumer price index fell 1.7% in June compared with the same month a year earlier, the fifth consecutive monthly decline.

Public private progress

The BBC’s correspondent in Shanghai. Chris Hogg, says the new GDP growth is largely due to the government’s massive economic stimulus package unveiled last November.

But the private sector is doing its part too, he explained.

China’s state controlled banks have lent huge amounts of money to the country’s state owned and private sector businesses.

Companies have used the cash to try to avoid shedding jobs and to invest in new equipment, he adds.

The many new government infrastructure projects have provided employment for many of the migrant workers who have been laid off – mainly in the export sector, our correspondent says.

Industrial output – a measure of activity in the nation’s factories and workshops – grew by more than 10% year on year in June.

Urban fixed asset investment – a measure of government spending on infrastructure – rose by more than 35% over the same period.

China’s GDP growth in the first quarter of 6.1%, had been the weakest growth since quarterly records began in 1992.

China experienced double-digit growth from 2003 to 2007, and recorded 9% growth in 2008.

China is implementing a 4 trillion yuan ($585bn, £390bn) stimulus package to counter the impact of the global slowdown.</p


This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.

A fine balancing act

Is China’s economic stimulus too much of a good thing?

CHINESE growth was already the envy of the world. Now recession-stricken countries will be turning an even brighter green. On Thursday July 16th new figures showed China’s GDP growth quickened to 7.9% in the year to the second quarter. That is healthy enough by anyone’s standards but the headline number conceals a more astonishing rebound. Goldman Sachs estimates that GDP grew at an annualised rate of 16.5% in the second quarter compared with the previous three months. Over the same period, America’s economy probably contracted again. China’s economic stimulus has clearly been hugely effective. So effective, indeed, that some economists are now worrying it may be working rather too well.

In the year to June fixed investment surged by 35%, car sales rose by 48%, and purchases of homes by more than 80%. After falling last year, home prices are now rising briskly in some big cities, and share prices have soared by 80% from their November low. Domestic spending has been spurred partly by the government’s stimulus package, but probably even more important was the scrapping of restrictions on bank lending late last year. In June new lending was more than four times larger than a year earlier. …

Decline slows

Taiwan’s deep recession may be easing

Several economic indicators point to a slight easing of Taiwan’s deep economic recession during the second quarter of 2009, following a 10.2% year-on-year fall in real GDP in the first quarter—the most dramatic single-quarter contraction since records began in 1961. However, Taiwan’s heavily trade-dependent economy will continue to suffer deeply in the next couple of years. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that Taiwan’s real GDP will contract by 6.5% in 2009. The poor economic and financial environment abroad will continue to undermine Taiwan’s growth prospects in 2010, when the economy is forecast to expand by just 0.6%.

The composite index of leading economic indicators produced by the Council for Economic Planning and Development, which forecasts conditions over the next three to six months, reinforces our view that Taiwan’s economy, although showing signs of stabilising, remains weak. In May the index strengthened slightly for the fourth successive month, rising by 3.3% from April. Six of the seven components of the index—export orders, average monthly overtime in industry and services, book-to-bill ratios in the semiconductor machinery industry, monetary aggregate M1b (currency in circulation plus current-account and passbook deposits, and plus passbook savings deposits), stock prices and producers’ inventory—showed positive movement. However, the barometer, which uses five colours to measure the health of the economy, continued to flash blue, indicating recession, for the ninth month in a row. …

And next for Britain, the semi-slump

British economic history warns us to beware false dawns. Those calling for spending cuts have got it wrong – again

‘The duration of the slump may be much more prolonged than most people are expecting and … much will be changed both in our ideas and in our methods before we emerge. Not, of course the duration of the acute phase of the slump, but that of the long, dragging conditions of semi-slump, or at least sub-normal prosperity, which may be expected to succeed the acute phase.” John Maynard Keynes‘s lucid warning, delivered in 1930, might equally apply today.

It is instructive to look at the pattern of the great depression. The level of Britain’s gross domestic product in 1930 was not reached again until 1934. The annual unemployment rate of 1929, 8.2%, was lower than in every year during the 1930s, reaching a high of 17.6% in 1932. Today, we are probably out of the acute phase of the present recession, but the recovery is likely to be protracted.

Output for the first quarter of 2009 was revised down to -2.4%. That is the biggest drop since 1958, as the Office for National Statistics revised its initial estimate of 1.9%. In addition, the fourth quarter of the 2008 figure was revised down to a fall of 1.8% – as was the figure for the second quarter of last year, from zero to -0.1%, meaning the recession started in April 2008. Data from the Index of Production published this month also suggests little evidence of any recovery. Manufacturing output continues to decline and is at a 17-year low.

The 1980s recession began in the first quarter of 1980, and lasted for four quarters. The unemployment rate at that time was 5.8%; it did not return to that level for 20 years. From the third quarter of 1990 onwards, the economy recorded five successive quarters of negative growth. In the second quarter of 1990 unemployment was 6.9% and did not return to that rate for seven years.

And the current slump? Employment peaked in April 2008; since then Britain has lost 430,000 jobs. That unemployment has increased more than employment has fallen is of particular concern, because it shows that firms have stopped hiring, which particularly affects the young.

So, based on output, employment and unemployment, the recession started in the spring of 2008. We have already experienced four quarters of negative growth, with more to come.

Economists are uncertain about the likely path of recovery. For example, less than a year ago Britain’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research was predicting that the UK economy would “escape recession”, forecasting positive economic growth in both 2008 and 2009. On 10 June this year, the NIESR said, “The monthly profile points to March as having been the trough of the depression.” But on 7 July it had changed its mind again, arguing, “March can no longer be considered the trough of the recession.” A month is a long time in economics these days.

I continue to be struck by the similarities between the US and the UK. The American National Bureau of Economic Research called the start of the recession in the US when employment began falling in December 2007. Since that time US unemployment has increased by 7.17 million, whereas employment has fallen by only 6.46 million. The unemployment rate has risen from 4.9% to 9.4%.

The US is six quarters into recession. Despite a substantial fiscal stimulus and very accommodating monetary policy there is little sign that recovery is imminent. There have been several false dawns. The monthly decline in US payroll employment, for example, slowed in May but increased again to 467,000 in June. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which had improved considerably in May, fell again in June. The job outlook section of the index was also more pessimistic. Those respondents anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 17.4% from 19.3%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 27.3% from 25.6%.

The Bank of England’s timid monetary policy committee should not have sat on its hands last week; it should have expanded further its programme of quantitative easing. In the current circumstances, if we are to avoid the “dragging conditions of semi-slump”, public spending cuts make absolutely no sense. The government should be increasing spending now – and by a lot – not least because it can borrow at such a low long-run rate of interest. In such circumstances, infrastructure and education are smart investments for all our futures. Most of the self-proclaimed experts calling for public spending cuts missed the recession in the first place.

So I have a question for Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg. What plans do you have to get unemployment down any time soon? If you want to transform a recession into a depression, go ahead and cut public spending. I would advise against it and so, I believe, would John Maynard Keynes. Voters want jobs.

David Blanchflower is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a research associate at the NBER. He was a member of the Bank of England’s MPC from June 2006 to May 2009

guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds


Signs of life

Singapore’s economic prospects remain precarious

Singapore’s export-oriented economy, one of the most exposed to the global downturn, rebounded in spectacular fashion in the second quarter, according to a preliminary government estimate. However, much of the improvement was the result of potentially temporary factors. The city-state will not fully recover until the global economy returns to health—although Singapore’s unusual reliance on external trade also means that its economy is likely to be one of the first to rebound when export demand picks up.

According to an advance estimate released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on July 14th, Singapore’s seasonally adjusted real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 20.4% compared with the previous quarter. Data for the first three months of the year were also revised upwards, to the effect that GDP in January-March is now estimated to have contracted by an annualised 12.7% compared with the fourth quarter of 2008 (an improvement from the 14.6% contraction reported in the MTI’s previous GDP release, in May). …

Strong Intel Numbers Signal Hope for IT Industry

Intel’s strong second quarter fuels hope that the global recession that has hammered the IT industry may be easing. Excluding a massive fine from the European Union, Intel reports a $1 billion profit on $8 billion in revenue. Intel CEO Paul Otellini echoes his counterparts from Dell and Microsoft by saying he expects enterprise purchases of servers and consumer purchases of PCs to pick up after the recession forced spending cuts. However, purchases of business PCs are expected remain stagnant.
– Three months after CEO Paul Otellini
announced that the PC
market had bottomed out, Intel’s latest quarterly numbers indicate that the
industry may be stabilizing.
Intel July 14 posted strong numbers in the second quarter, including $8
billion in revenue and a $1 billion profit. However, when t…


Jason Daley: New World Quarter

The Russians and Chinese are agitating for a new world currency, something to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve legal tender. We need a currency with a little zip, a little style, and possibly rhinestones.

Mike Lux: Congrats, Goldman, On That Enormous Profit, Now When Do The Rest Of Us Get Something?

If you’ve seen the news today, you know Goldman Sachs exceeded its second quarter expectations for earnings, making $3.44 billion after dividends. As I wrote…

Sun Expects Q4 Revenue to Be Down by $1 Billion

In what might be its final preliminary report on quarterly financials, Sun Microsystems said it expects revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 to be down more than $1 billion from a year ago. Erstwhile owner Oracle doesn’t seem worried, saying it expects Sun to add $1.5 billion per year to its own revenues.
– In what might be its final preliminary report on quarterly financials, Sun Microsystems said July 14 that it expects revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 to be in the range of $2.58 billion and $2.68 billion, down more than $1 billion from a year ago.

Sun recorded revenues of $3.78 bil…


Analysts Look to YouTube to Buoy Google Q2 Earnings

Several analysts issue their expectations for Google’s second quarter earnings results, with Thomson Reuters analysts expecting Google to notch $5.06 per share on sales of $4.05 billion. These analysts say YouTube and DoubleClick helped pad Google’s online sales. Google executives will also get questions about Microsoft Bing and the pending Chrome OS.
– Google will report second quarter earnings July 16 after the market closes, with many analysts expecting the search engine giant to post a solid quarter in the face of the lumbering economy.
Google does not provide financial guidance, though analysts from Thomson Reuters said they expect Google to…


Housing Price Reductions Are Proliferating

Nearly a quarter of the homes listed for sale in the U.S. have had at least one price reduction, with an average discount of 10% off the original asking price, according to an analysis by the listings site Trulia.com. The analysis shows that o…

Back on song?

By Rustam Qobil
BBC Uzbek

FROM THE BBC WORLD SERVICE

More from BBC World Service

Music school in Kabul

In rapidly-changing Kabul, the old musician’s quarter Harabat is still marked by past bloodshed and destruction.

While money has poured into the physical regeneration of Afghanistan, the country’s cultural life has been largely ignored.

Traditional music, reviled by the Taliban regime, is one case in point.

Harabat is one of the poorest neighbourhoods in Afghanistan’s capital.

Very few buildings here have been left unharmed by rocket attacks, and traders along the quarter’s main street park their carts piled with second-hand clothes surrounded by the ruins of once magnificent buildings.

No money

These ruins used to be home to dozens of small music schools, where famous Afghan Ustads or Maestros, taught youngsters traditional Afghan music, passing their skills on to new generations.

Classical Afghan music is a fine blend of South and Central Asian traditions and Middle Eastern melodies. It has its own unique voice, which was defined, polished and perfected in Harabat.

But in the decades of conflict, Harabat was first targeted by the Mujahideen forces in the early 1990s when the Taliban tried to eliminate everything associated with music and art.

Harabat, Kabul's old music quarter

Many Ustads had to leave their music schools and became refugees in neighbouring countries.

Now some of them are back in Kabul, determined to bring the quarter’s tradition back to life.

In a small room above a row of shops, the Amiri family has set up a Harabat-style traditional school.

"We teach youngsters to play rubab, tabla and harmonium. We also work with their voices and they learn classical songs," says Nasir Amiri, one of three brothers running the school.

"Altogether, we have six pupils. But young people lack patience to learn classical music these days," he says.

There are a few music schools in Harabat now, and few are driven by the desire to make money.

Those who can’t afford to pay can attend lessons for free.

"We were taught music by our father, Muhammad Amiri, who was one of the famous Ustads of Harabat," Nasir says.

"After his death, we feel obliged to continue his work, even if we don’t make any money out of it".

Struggle

The Amiri brothers used to earn their living playing classical music at wedding parties. But with the spread of Western style pop, they have had to adapt. But while playing popular songs might feed their families, it is classical music where their hearts lie.

"No one is really interested in buying these instruments because they are no good for pop music."

Kabul shopkeeper

Kabul music shop

The family lived in Pakistan for twelve years where they taught music to Afghan refugee children.

"Back in Pakistan we lived under better conditions. At least we could pay our rent and didn’t have to worry about what our children would eat," says Bashir, "but our music is needed here – in Afghanistan."

But reviving the old music is a struggle. There is one music shop in Harabat which sells finely decorated, traditional instruments. The shopkeeper, a musician himself, says he struggles to sell even one instrument a day.

"Everything here is made in Kabul. But no one is really interested in buying these instruments because they are no good for pop music. I’m afraid I might close this shop and do something else instead," he says.

Maybe it is no surprise that the revival of musical traditions is not high on the agenda of a country facing so many problems, from the insurgency to widespread poverty.

But the popularity of new television channels playing music shows that there is a hunger for entertainment, even if commercial stations offer something rather more populist than the traditional sounds from Harabat.

But those trying to revive those sounds are determined not to give up.

The original translation of Harabat meant "ruins".

But there is another meaning: "dedication".

It seems the quarter is living up to its other translation in every sense. </p


This article is from the BBC News website. © British Broadcasting Corporation, The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites.