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Science Weekly: the Astronomer Royal

What will our world look like in 2050? Astronomer Royal and president of the Royal Society Martin Rees predicts crises in water and energy supplies as a result of increased population pressure, exacerbated by climate change. Speaking to Alok Jha earlier this month, he also discussed the prospects for mitigating global warming and the UK’s role in reducing carbon emissions.

This is the full-length version of the excerpt we ran in our Hay Festival special.

On a lighter note – perhaps – Rees weighed up the chances that we will have discovered alien life by 2050.

Our full-length Science Weekly podcasts return next week after a brief holiday break. In the meantime, please feel free to …

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DNA reveals trail of ivory smugglers

Scientists have used a revolutionary genetic technique to pinpoint the area of Africa where smugglers are slaughtering elephants to feed the worldwide illegal ivory trade.

Using a DNA map of Africa’s elephants, they have found that most recent seizures of tusks can be traced to animals that had grazed in the Selous and Niassa game reserves on the Tanzania and Mozambique borders.

The discovery suggests that only a handful of cartels are responsible for most of the world’s booming trade in illegal ivory and for the annual slaughter of tens of thousands of elephants. The extent of this trade is revealed through recent seizures of thousands of tusks in separate raids on docks in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan. These were aimed at satisfying the far east’s growing appetite for ivory, a new status symbol for the middle classes of the region’s swelling industrialised economies.

As a result, ivory prices have soared from $200 a kilogram in 2004 to more than $6,000. At the same time, scientists estimate that between 8% and 10% of Africa’s elephants are now being slaughtered each year to meet demand.

“In the past, law enforcement agencies – including Interpol – thought these shipments of ivory had been put together by traders cherry-picking small stockpiles across Africa,” said Professor Sam Wasser, director of the University of Washington’s Centre for Conservation Biology, where the DNA elephant map was developed.

“Our work shows that isn’t true. The vast majority of poaching is being carried out by a few big organisations – possibly one or two major syndicates – that are targeting one area and then hammering its elephants. It is grim, but it also suggests we can target our anti-poaching efforts very specifically by focussing efforts on these regions.”

At present, Tanzania is at the centre of the world’s ivory slaughter. However, other work by Wasser and his team indicates that different areas, including parts of Zambia and Malawi, have been targeted in the recent past.

Ivory poaching was halted by an international campaign in the 1990s after it reached a peak between 1979 and 1989, when more than 700,000 elephants were killed for their tusks. However, aid that helps African nations fight poachers has dried up and the illegal ivory trade has returned to its previous high levels.

Killing for tusks is a particularly gruesome trade. Elephants are highly intelligent animals whose sophisticated social ties are exploited by poachers. They will often shoot young elephants to draw in a grieving parent, which is then killed for its tusks. “Our estimates suggest that more than 38,000 elephants were killed using techniques such as this in 2006 and that the annual death rate is even higher today,” said Wasser.

His team’s technique – outlined in the current issue of Scientific American – involves two separate sets of analyses. First, volunteers and researchers across Africa collected samples of elephant dung. Each contains plentiful amounts of DNA from cells, sloughed from the intestines of individual animals. These provide material for DNA fingerprints, which have since been mapped for the whole of Africa. Animals from one area have very similar DNA fingerprints, the researchers have found.

As part of the second analysis, a section of tusk seized from smugglers is ground up and its DNA is carefully extracted. Again a DNA fingerprint is made and compared with those on the dung map, in order to pinpoint the origin of the elephant.

In this way, Wasser and his colleagues analysed ivory seized when more than 11 tonnes of tusks were found in containers in raids on Taiwan and Hong Kong docks in July and August 2006. About 1,500 tusks were discovered and all were traced to elephants from the Selous game reserve, a Unesco heritage site in Tanzania, and the nearby Niassa game reserve in Mozambique. However, Japanese authorities – who had made another seizure of ivory that summer in Osaka – refused to co-operate and have since burnt the 260 tusks they found before their origins could be established. “You can draw your own conclusions,” said Wasser.

Since then, major seizures of ivory have been made in Vietnam and the Philippines, both this year, and Wasser and his team are now preparing to use their DNA map to trace its origins.

“Ivory is now traded globally in the same illegal manner as drugs and weapons,” said Wasser. “It is shameful that this has happened and we need to press the countries whose elephants are being targeted this way and get them to halt this trade.”

guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds


Cows on list of countryside dangers

A herd trampling on a woman vet and injuries inflicted on former home secretary David Blunkett highlight the risk of attacks by cattle, especially if calves or dogs are nearby. Anushka Asthana reports on the need for ramblers to be ‘animal aware’

Thomas De Quincey, the 19th-century critic and essayist, once stated: “Cows are amongst the gentlest of breathing creatures.” Many might disagree.

Farm worker Mike Scriven, for instance. He was left with severe bruising last week after being chased across a field by a 450kg cow. Scriven, 46, who was trapped under the animal’s body for almost an hour, escaped only by gouging its eyes repeatedly.

Or David Blunkett, the former cabinet minister, who is nursing two broken ribs after being charged by a cow while walking his guide dog, Sadie, in the Peak District this month.

A third incident ended in tragedy last weekend. Liz Crowsley, 49, a vet, was trampled to death by a herd of cows in the Yorkshire Dales. Her two dogs, a spaniel and collie cross, fled to safety.

Perhaps the animal for which De Quincey professed a “deep love” is not always as docile as city dwellers might think. Figures reveal that attacks by cows are by no means unusual. According to data released by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), there have been 67 incidents in the past five years in which a member of the public has reported being injured by cattle. In six of the cases, which do not cover 2009, the person was killed.

The risk is even greater for farm workers whose injuries are recorded separately. Over the same period there were 23 fatal incidents involving farmers and their employees, another 300 that resulted in “major” harm and 277 in which the injury took more than three days to heal. Far more go unreported.

Blunkett has been inundated with messages from people who have suffered similar attacks. “I have had letters flooding in – from people telling me about personal experiences, family experiences, who have been in hospital for three weeks after an incident, who have had family members killed, and a couple of letters from people whose dogs were crushed,” he said. People had also thanked him for drawing attention to the problem: “If I hadn’t been who I am, no one would know about it. Although I went to hospital I doubt they would have reported it. There is usually a category for road traffic accident – but for being crushed by a cow?”

Blunkett, MP for Sheffield Brightside, was out walking with his son on his 62nd birthday when they came across the cattle. They put Sadie on a lead to walk around the animals when one cow broke away and charged towards them. “My son was trying to protect me but the cow decided to have a dive at the dog and it knocked me down,” he said. “I think it kicked me because I have bruising all over and a couple of broken ribs.”

After the incident, Blunkett said he had found out there was a new cross-breed of cow. “A particular strain from Europe that is more aggressive,” he said, arguing that in such cases temporary electric fencing should be used. “Most of the rights of way in the Peak District cross over fields, so I think fencing should be considered, and walkers have to be extremely careful – especially if they have dogs.”

Since right to roam legislation opened up vast areas of the countryside, the HSE has published guidance about the “potential hazards” posed by cattle. It tells farmers to “plan and take action”. Tips include assessing if the animals are generally placid or well behaved, erecting temporary fencing and placing signposts on paths. “If you have an animal known or suspected to be aggressive, then you should not keep it in a field that is used by the public,” it warns.

Tony Mitchell, from the HSE’s agriculture and food sector safety section, said: “Cattle are classed as a non-dangerous species and by and large are generally docile. Their inquisitive nature is often mistaken for aggression. However, if they feel threatened by unusual disturbance, such as dogs, or when maternal instincts are aroused, then they may react in a threatening manner.”

According to the HSE, the two most common factors in attacks involving members of the public are “cows with calves” and “walkers with dogs”.

“Over the years a lot of people have been under the misconception that a bull in a field is the most dangerous thing,” said Alistair Bull, livestock manager at Thelveton Farms, near Diss in Norfolk. “The most serious incidents take place when there are groups of suckler cows that have calves with them – because they have that maternal instinct to protect their calves. You would not walk into a pen with elephants or giraffes when they have just given birth.”

Bull said he advised walkers not to let dogs off their leads when close to cattle. “What happens is the dog gets chased and it runs straight back to its owner with a cow in hot pursuit. And cows do not tend to attack singly. If you think of wildlife programmes, the matriarch comes forward with her infantry behind. To a person from town, that dog is part of the family so their first instinct is to rescue it, but the next minute they will have 750kg cows charging around them. It is a recipe for disaster.”

Part of the problem, said Bull, was that more and more people coming to the countryside were “less animal aware”. But he admitted it was not just the public who were at risk. The “most scary” moment of his life was when he and a colleague used a dog to help round up a herd of suckler cows. “Within 20 seconds one of the cows attacked the dog. Then the others started bellowing – a warning cry. The dog came galloping back to us and within seconds we were surrounded by 40 cows. We were petrified – we thought we’d had it. They turned from docile cows to a mob.”

Adrian Morris of the Ramblers’ Association said walkers should appreciate that the countryside was a working environment. “We get two to three queries a week related to incidents involving animals, with one or two a year that have been serious. Quite often we hear stories about people having to run across a field to the nearest stile. It is difficult to know how much is perception and how much reality.”

A spokesman for the National Farmers’ Union added: “Attacks by cattle are extremely rare. If you feel threatened, just carry on as normal, do not run, move to the edge of the field, and if possible find another way round. And remember to close the gate.”

Others pointed out that livestock were also at risk from ignorance of country ways. “We are aware of many reports of animals being attacked by dogs off the lead, or of dogs being injured when a herd is frightened and pursues the dog,” said Katy Geary, a spokeswoman for the RSPCA. “We believe that tens of thousands of livestock are killed or maimed. Terrified sheep and cattle have been chased over cliffs and into rivers, had their throats and intestines ripped out, or been caused to miscarry through dog attacks. People find it hard to believe their pet can be a hazard to livestock.”

Whatever triggered the attack on him, Blunkett knows he is lucky to be alive. “I didn’t realise the seriousness at first – I had no idea I had broken my ribs.” He says he has lived in the countryside since he was a boy and had never been worried about bulls or cows. Along with others, he may now steer well clear.

Six tips for safety

If confronted by cows…

• Do be prepared for cattle to react to your presence, particularly if you are with a dog.

• Do move quickly and quietly – and if possible walk around them.

• Do keep your dog close and under proper control.

• Don’t hang on to your dog if you are threatened by animals – let it go.

• Don’t put yourself at risk. Find another way round and rejoin the footpath as soon as possible.

• Don’t panic. Most cows will stop before they reach you. If they follow, just walk on quietly.

• Report any problems to the highway authority.

guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2009 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds