A close election for Norway in September

The general election in September looks to be heading for a close finish between the governing centre-left parties and the centre-right opposition. The Labour Party and the populist Progress Party are expected to dominate the final stages of the election campaign, but it is the showing by the smaller parties that is likely to determine which coalitions are possible in the new parliament.

With the election on September 14th just over one month away, the result looks like being extremely close. Recent opinion polls suggest that the ruling left-centre coalition, comprised of the Labour Party, the Socialist Left Party (SV) and the Centre Party, could remain in power, but with only a one- or two-seat majority. If it fails to win an overall majority, there are considerable uncertainties over which combination of parties could succeed in forming a new government. The rise of the populist Progress Party (which was evident even before the last election in September 2005) suggests that some voters see a clear right-wing alternative to the dominant Labour Party, but Progress could still find it difficult to find partners to form a government. …