As the trial of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi continues in Burma, a BBC correspondent assesses the mood of the country’s opposition movement.

For the safety of those we spoke to, we cannot reveal their names or that of our correspondent.

To arrange an interview with the leader of the youth wing of Burma’s National League of Democracy (NLD) was difficult.

It had taken a week to meet him, complicated by the fact that phone calls are routinely tapped and e-mails closely monitored by the military authorities.

But at last we were told to go a secret location.

There we waited, concerned – as an hour ticked by – that he was not coming, or perhaps had been arrested.

Finally there was a knock at the door. We shook hands and sat down together.

This was the man who could tell us if there were going to be any organised protests against the widely expected conviction of jailed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Election concerns

Ms Suu Kyi is on trial on charges of breaking the terms of her house arrest.

"We are preparing for revolution. But the people are scared of being shot by the army, and will not go out on to the streets"

Burmese opposition leader

Burma’s generals have detained her for 13 of the past 19 years, and she has been held in the notorious Insein jail near Rangoon for almost two months.

I asked the NLD activist why the government was delaying the conclusion of Ms Suu Kyi’s trial.

"They cannot let her be free before the elections," was the response.

Everyone I asked said the same.

The Burmese military has pledged to hold elections early next year – the first since 1990, when the NLD won a landslide victory but the army refused to let them take power.

And now the ruling generals still do not wish Ms Suu Kyi – whom locals refer to with reverence as The Lady – to take part.

The opposition activist I was talking to was one of the leaders of pro-democracy protests in 1988, which followed then ruler General Ne Win’s decision to suddenly devalue the currency, wiping out the savings of thousands of Burmese people.

These protests were met with a violent crackdown, in which human rights groups say at least 3,000 people were killed.

Soldiers sprayed automatic rifle fire into crowds of protesters, and other demonstrators were carried away in trucks and never seen again.

The NLD man I met also played a leading role in the protests in 2007, when a fuel price hike triggered anti-government demonstrations.

The protests spread from monks to students, and became an uprising – the most significant challenge to Burma’s generals in almost two decades.

But again there was a crackdown. At least 10 people were confirmed dead in the military’s response to the protests, and many thousands more – including many monks – were reportedly arrested.

Amnesty International estimates that over 2,100 people are still in jail as a result.

Fear of reprisals

The man I spoke was arrested after both protests, and has spent many years in prison – but he’s still not given up.

"We are trying to make a 1988 and 2007 revolution. We are preparing for revolution," he said.

"But the people are scared of being shot by the army, and will not go out on to the streets."

"When the people start their demonstrations, there will be shouting – so people are scared and will not come out."

I asked him what his plans were, if Aung San Suu Kyi was found guilty.

"There will be a small protest outside the prison," he told me. "But we will stay underground. We will keep working, but we cannot do anything."

"One day we will call for a hunger strike outside Insein prison and the government will stop us, but we will keep on going…

"And we will also call for a hunger strike inside the prison. Even she [Aung San Suu Kyi] may go on hunger strike."

Army support

But Burma is a country with a population of 49 million people, where many find it hard to feed their families, where those who rule do not seem to care – so a hunger strike will not bring change.

I had expected to be told that there were plans for mass protests.

If the one group brave enough to go on the streets before was now afraid of what could happen, was there any hope for a free and democratic Burma

"If the Burmese were united, that would change everything," he told me. "If the army’s low ranks combined with the people, there would be change."

"But all the low ranks must join the people."

The government commands a combined armed force estimated to be nearly 400,000-strong.

And those in the military live a separate life from the people, so what made this man think that they would be prepared to join a protest

"I have heard from the low ranks, who see those with the rank of major and above with nice cars and houses – they are unhappy. They want change.

"But whenever anyone speaks out or is thought to show dissent in the army, they are arrested."

It seemed that there was little hope of change, but the man remained optimistic: "I believe that I will see Aung San Suu Kyi free before I die," he said.

He stopped and looked at his hands. Then he slowly nodded and for a moment his eyes seemed to swell.

"I will sacrifice myself for the memory of my friends."

With that, he stood and left.

If Burmese people do take to the streets if Aung San Suu Kyi is found guilty, the man I met might well be leading them.

Watch the full report from Burma on Newsnight on Thursday 16 July at 10.30BST on BBC Two.</p

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