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UK GDP falls faster than expected

• GDP down 0.8% in threee months to June
• City had expected a 0.3% decline, with some expecting growth

The chancellor’s forecasts for economic growth were blown out of the water official figures revealed Britain’s economy contracted by a record 5.6% over the last year as output fell for a fifth straight quarter.

Dashing hopes that the steepest decline in growth since the 1930s might be nearing an end, the Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product – the total value of goods and services in the economy – fell by 0.8% in the three months to June. The size of the drop surprised the City, which had expected only a 0.3% decline following recent signs of a pickup in the housing market and strong growth in high street spending.

But although the news caused the pound to fall 0.5% against the dollar to $1.64, the FTSE 100 saw its 10th straight day of gains, ending up 16.8 points, or 0.4%, at 4,577.

Economists believe GDP will almost certainly contract by more than the Treasury’s forecast of between –3.25% and –3.75% this year.

“It would be a miracle [if the government's target was met],” said Colin Ellis, European economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC. “Not on the scale of water into wine but not far off.”

The economy has already contracted by 3.16% this year and analysts are predicting a drop of 4.5% for 2009 as a whole.

Hetal Mehta, senior economic adviser to the Ernst & Young Item Club, said the economy would have to grow by 1% in the third quarter of the year and by 1.8% in the final three months to meet the government’s target of –3.75%.

The Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, said: “These figures blow a hole in the chancellor’s GDP forecast for this year. The government’s failure to address the crisis in bank lending is only making the economic outlook worse. As a result, the deficit will balloon further, leading to bigger spending cuts or higher taxes.” The shadow chancellor, George Osborne, said: “These disappointing figures are much worse than expected and show that the recession is longer and deeper than the government had led us to believe. The sad news is this will mean the rise in unemployment is likely to be even steeper.”

Before yesterday’s data, some economists had even predicted the UK could post its first positive growth since early 2008, and the size of the decline prompted immediate speculation that the Bank of England would be forced into fresh emergency action to kickstart activity.

While the pace of decline in GDP slowed from the 2.4% seen in the first three months of 2009, the economy has suffered a cumulative contraction of 5.7% in the last five quarters.

The ONS said this was double the drop in the recession of the early 1990s and almost as big as the 6.4% retrenchment during the 1980-81 slump. The 5.6% drop in GDP in a year has not been matched since comparable records began in 1955.

Business services and finances, a sector that has boomed for much of the last decade, accounted for more than a quarter of the GDP decline in the second quarter. Overall, services fell by 0.6% on the quarter and by 3.8% on the year.

Describing the figures as “shockingly bad” Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics, said they “firmly dash any hopes that the UK had already pulled out of recession”. Getting the economy back on track “looks likely to be a long hard slog”, she said.

The TUC’s general secretary, Brendan Barber, said: “There are no green shoots here. Unemployment is growing and a recovery that brings hope to the jobless looks ever more distant.

“Immediate big spending cuts are the last thing we need. They could tip the economy into an ever deeper downturn and make the deficit worse when the tax take falls and spending on unemployment goes up.”

Meanwhile, US consumer confidence fell this month to its lowest level since April amid growing pessimism about the long-term economic outlook, especially about income and jobs.

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Budget deficit hits record June high

Total government spending in June hit £49bn, up from £44.2bn a year earlier

Opposition parties were last night piling pressure on the government over Britain’s deteriorating public finances after falling tax revenues from recession-hit companies and consumers pushed the budget deficit to its highest for any June on record.

With tax and spending at the heart of the political fight between now and the general election, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives called on Alistair Darling to come clean about the options facing the country in the next parliament.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said public sector net borrowing – the gap between the exchequer’s tax take and its spending – stood at £13bn in June, slightly lower than City forecasts of £15.5bn, but the highest June deficit since records began in 1993. The £41.2bn borrowing in the three months to June was higher than for the entire year before the credit crunch started, and brought the total deficit over the last year up to £107bn.

The ONS said the corporation tax take from UK companies was down 14.1% in June from the same month last year, while VAT receipts fell 15.9% and income tax dropped 3.9%. While tax receipts have fallen, more and more people are claiming unemployment benefits. Government spending on social benefits has shot up 9.7% in the year to June.

The Lib Dem Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, said the figures suggested that “even the chancellor’s eye-watering prediction of £175bn borrowing this year could be an understatement”.

He added: “With such a mismatch between government spending and receipts it is clear that in the longer term these levels of borrowing are not sustainable. If the chancellor expects to have any credibility, both with the markets and the public, he must be brutally honest about how he intends to deal with levels of borrowing. However, such a commitment to deal with the deficit cannot come from salami slicing key public services, but through an honest debate about what the state can and cannot afford to do.”

Philip Hammond, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “Gordon Brown’s debt crisis is getting worse by the month. With borrowing at record levels, why can’t he finally be straight with people and admit there will have to be public spending cuts?

“In just the last month alone, Gordon Brown has increased every person’s share of the national debt by £213 each.”

A Treasury spokesperson said: “Our plans to halve the deficit within five years are based on cautious assumptions about share prices, unemployment and the loss of output from the shock to the economy built into the budget forecasts. The latest monthly figures for public sector borrowing are in line with our forecast.”

Public sector net debt as a proportion of GDP now stands at 56.6% – the highest since records began in 1974.

David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “It would be wrong to tighten policy while the recession continues, but maintaining Britain’s international credibility requires a robust plan for restoring our public finances over the medium-term. This must focus on curtailing public spending across the board, while avoiding damaging measures that would harm wealthcreating businesses.”

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Guardian Daily: Vince Cable on bank reform

The Conservatives would scrap the Financial Services Authority and put the Bank of England back in control of City regulation, David Cameron has confirmed.

The Liberal Democrats’ Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, says the FSA should be retained, but says the government has failed to introduce the radical reforms needed to avert another crash.

Legal affairs correspondent Afua Hirsch looks at the problems facing Trevor Phillips, head of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission.

John Hooper reports from Rome on the latest sex scandal facing Silvio Berlusconi, this time surrounding a tape purported to be a recording of pillow talk between the Italian prime minister and a prostitute.

John Crace roadtests a new cycle-hire scheme being pioneered in Bristol.

And Mike Selvey celebrates England’s victory over Australia in the second Test at Lord’s.


Bankers could be forced to reveal pay

Hundreds of City high-flyers could have their remuneration details published – but opposition MPs are critical

Plans to reveal the pay and bonuses of City high flyers in a new voluntary code came under attack from opposition MPs, who said the guidelines would be ignored unless they were enshrined in regulation and policed by the main financial watchdog.

A government-backed review recommended that some of the best-paid bank staff, who are currently shielded from scrutiny, should be included in annual reports as part of a wide range of measures designed to discourage risky behaviour.

The review by former investment bank boss Sir David Walker argued that exposing pay structures for highly paid staff in the City and putting an end to short-term bonuses would help prevent a repeat of the financial crisis.

Bonuses would be delayed for between three and five years and put under scrutiny by a beefed-up remuneration committee. Non-executive directors of finance companies would be required to spend more time assessing deals put forward by executive directors, Walker said.

But the report’s reliance on non-executive directors and shareholders to monitor a voluntary code was branded “inadequate” by Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman Vince Cable, who said banks should be instructed to observe the new rules by the Financial Services Authority.

Cable said: “It is clear that in banks like RBS the demigod status granted to Fred Goodwin prevented any form of credible scrutiny. So the news that bank boards may be forced to show that they can challenge a chief executive is a belated but welcome step in the right direction. But if the Walker approach is to have any value then it has to be obligatory through the FSA and not just on a voluntary basis.”

Sources close to several banks said there was a general acceptance that the Walker rules would be endorsed by the government in time for details of staff pay to appear in next year’s annual reports. According to City sources, one high street bank paid more than 200 staff more than its chief executive. Walker said he wanted the rules to apply to all banks operating in the City, including the largest US banks.

The review will reach chancellor Alistair Darling at a time when several banks have begun setting aside massive bonuses. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have reported record profits for the first half of the year.

Several MPs, already concerned at the massive taxpayer funds used to bail out Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group, have signed an early day motion signalling their concern at the return of huge bonuses at City institutions.

Independent MP Dai Davies sponsored the motion, which urged a rethink at Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street bank could be in a position to offer total pay and bonuses of more than $22bn (£13.3bn), equating to an average payout of $770,000 to each of its 29,400 employees. The motion said it believes “such obscene profits are made by encouraging the very reckless risk-taking that brought down or severely damaged several major banks, and run counter to the restraint urged by the chancellor.”

Goldman, RBS and other banks operating in the UK argue they have overhauled their bonus structures with a greater emphasis on long-term rewards, but continue to face criticism that both the size and structure of their bonuses encourages risky behaviour.

Walker said the pay of individual staff below board level who earn large sums would be revealed in the form of pay bands in the annual report, though names would be kept secret. The remuneration committee would have the power to overrule the board if it believed the level of pay or bonuses encouraged risky behaviour.

He also said the role of non-executive directors should be strengthened to make up for the failures of banks prior to the credit crisis. A risk committee at board level would also oversee the policies of the bank and assess whether they could undermine its strength.

Walker said: “These proposals are designed to improve the professionalism and diligence of bank boards, increasing the importance of challenge in the board environment. If this means that boards operate in a somewhat less collegial way than in the past, that will be a small price to pay for better governance.”

His proposals include:

• Board-level risk committees chaired by a non-executive director.

• Risk committees to have power to scrutinise, and if necessary block, big transactions.

• More power for remuneration committees to scrutinise company-wide pay.

• Remuneration committees to oversee pay of highly paid executives not on the board.

• Significant deferred element in bonus schemes for all highly paid executives.

• Increased public disclosure about the pay of such executives.

• Chair of remuneration committee to face re-election if his or her report gets less than 75% approval.

Walker said that while shareholders largely encouraged risk-taking by banks, they would need to take in the future a more active role in restraining banks such activity.

“Failures in governance in banks and other financial institutions made the financial crisis much worse. Many boards inadequately understood the type and scale of risks they were running and failed to hold the executive to high standards of sustainable performance. Bonus schemes contributed to excessive risk-taking by rewarding short-term performance. And shareholders failed to exercise proper stewardship,” he said.

“Taken alongside the arrangements being proposed by the FSA, the recommendations on remuneration are as tough or tougher than anything to be found elsewhere in the world. An important and urgent challenge is to promote adoption of similar approaches internationally.

“These recommendations should bring substantial improvement in the governance of banks. They will not guarantee that failure will be avoided in future but will greatly mitigate the risk.”

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