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Swine flu ‘could overwhelm critical care units’

Intensive care wards could be overwhelmed by severely ill swine flu patients if infection rates in the UK climb rapidly, doctors are warning.

The growing pressure on critical care beds was underlined by the flying of a pregnant 26-year-old from a hospital in Kilmarnock to Sweden for life-saving treatment because of a shortage of equipment in Britain. Sharon Pentleton’s family said she was gravely ill, but her doctors believe she has a good chance of recovery.

Yesterday, the World Health Organisation said 800 people had now died worldwide from H1N1 flu and as many as 2 billion people could eventually be infected.

According to Dr Alan Hay, director of the WHO’s London-based world influenza centre, the first wave of UK infections is likely to peak within the next week or two before re-emerging in the winter.

Research published in the journal Anaesthesia suggests that when the peak comes, demand for intensive care beds could outstrip supply by 130% in some regions, while the demand for ventilators could exceed supply by 20%. Paediatric facilities are likely to become “quickly exhausted” as hospitals confront “massive excess demand”, according to experts in intensive care and anaesthesia from the University of Cambridge, the Intensive Care Society and St George’s Healthcare NHS trust in London.

Hospitals on the south-east coast, and in the south-west, east of England and east Midlands are likely to be worst hit, they said. Dr Ari Ercole, of the University of Cambridge, said: “Early experience of the present strain suggests that the attack rate is particularly high in the young and that this virus may severely compromise the immune systems of people who contract it.”

Up to 15% of those admitted to hospital with swine flu require intensive care treatment, according to figures from Australia.

Another problem also emerged yesterday. Professor Mike Morgan, who chairs the British Thoracic Society, warned that patients with pneumonia could be misdiagnosed as having swine flu and given anti-viral drugs rather than antibiotics. “Among all the people with swine flu there may be people who have pneumonia and get missed,” he said. “Antibiotics are used against pneumonia and the concern is that people will be given Tamiflu instead.”

It has been revealed that Sainsbury’s will opt out of distributing Tamiflu over fears of encouraging people with swine flu into its stores. Tesco and Asda have signed up some pharmacies as collection points. But while some Sainsbury’s pharmacies are supplying the drug there are no plans for the chain to become an official collection point. A spokesman said: “A supermarket, with thousands of daily visitors, is not a suitable collection point as it would lead to increased risk to shoppers and colleagues.”

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Obama invites police officer for beer

President attempts to defuse growing controversy about sergeant’s arrest of black history professor

Barack Obama today phoned the white policeman he said “acted stupidly” in arresting a black Harvard professor in his own home and invited the officer to visit the White House as the president attempted to defuse a growing race row over the incident.

Obama revealed he made the five-minute phone call to Sergeant James Crowley shortly after police unions demanded an apology from the president for saying the police in Cambridge, Massachusetts “acted stupidly” in arresting Henry Louis Gates on charges of disorderly conduct after the officer responded to a report of a suspected burglary.

The president said he should have chosen his words more carefully but stopped short of an apology. “Because this has been ratcheting up and I helped to contribute to ratcheting it up, I want to make it clear that in my choice of words I unfortunately gave the impression I was maligning the Cambridge police department and Sergeant Crowley and I could have calibrated those words differently,” he said.

Seeking to lighten the situation further, he said at the daily White House briefing that he had invited both Crowley and Gates for “a beer here in the White House”.

However, the president also said he felt both men could have handled the situation better.

Earlier, Steve Killian, president of the Cambridge police patrol officers’ association, denied that race was a factor in the arrest and demanded an apology from Obama and the state governor, Deval Patrick, who is African-American and had described the arrest as “every black man’s nightmare”.

“Cambridge police are not stupid. It is a great department. I think everyone that knows us knows that,” said Killian.

Other police union officials said the charges against Gates should not have been dropped. Crowley arrested the professor for disorderly conduct after neighbours saw him and a black taxi driver attempting to force the jammed front door of his home. Gates said he showed identification and asked Crowley for his name and badge number because he did not like the way he was spoken to. The professor accused the policeman of racial profiling and apparently raised his voice.

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Orthodox Jews stand firm

The Haredi population believe in big families and reject TVs, computers, and Zionism

The headlines declared it a holy war, an almighty stand-off between the city’s religious and secular residents. For weeks West Jerusalem has been rocked by fierce street battles as ultra-religious Jewish protesters have clashed with police, resulting in countless injuries, dozens of arrests and thousands of pounds damage.

Protests first erupted over the opening of a municipal car park on Saturdays, seen as a desecration of the Sabbath. Then riots flared again at the arrest of an ultra-religious woman accused of starving her toddler son, which protesters viewed as heavy-handed police interference. These furious protests have been reported as the actions of a tiny minority, supporters of a violent and backward religious fundamentalism. The ultra-Orthodox counter that they have been cast as monsters, as usual – victims of religious intolerance.

“They lie to make us seem small and extreme,” says Yoel Kraus, one of the demonstrators. “We are a quarter of the Jewish population here – and you can’t fight that.” Kraus, 37, is from Eda Haredit, an anti-state grouping within the ultra-Orthodox sector, which organised many of the recent protests in the city. In total, the ultra-orthodox sector – known as “Haredi” or “God-fearing” – forms around half of the Jewish population in Jerusalem. The recent clashes have taken place against the background of a rapidly expanding, low-income Haredi population perceived to be taking over the city.

The past decade or so has seen a steady exodus of secular residents who feel that they have been squeezed out of an increasingly religious city, while the ultra-Orthodox population has spread to previously non-religious neighbourhoods, so that more of West Jerusalem feels religiously observant.

Kraus, 37, lives with his wife Rachel, 36, and their 11 children in Mea Shearim, a Haredi neighbourhood of Jerusalem dating back to the 19th century. Insular and devout, the area is home to predominantly European-origin residents, and resembles an old shtetl (traditional 19th century Jewish town in eastern Europe). Winding stone streets bear signs reminding visitors to dress modestly, act respectfully, and don’t come in big groups. Placards mark Israel’s 61st anniversary as a holocaust for the Jewish people. For some groups, including Eda Haredit, the creation of the Jewish state goes against God’s will.

As a secular ideology, Zionism is considered heretic and is accused of pretending to end Jewish exile which the ultra-Orthodox believe can only cease with the messiah’s arrival.

The Kraus family’s 150-year-old stone building is a renovator’s dream project, but inside it is plain and peeling – a modest, two-room home with an extra room for the elder boys in the cellar. The furniture is basic: a simple dining table, a second-hand fridge, two large sofabeds that roll out for the older children; single beds for the parents and cots for the younger kids. The books are holy, and the walls are bare except for a few framed religious texts and an old pendulum clock, which has stopped.

“The purpose of life is to serve God, to fulfil religious obligations – not to live in modern luxury,” says Yoel Kraus, a religious student who works part-time at a slaughterhouse. “Every day we see the world getting worse, more aggressive. We see the dangers and are trying to preserve a few things.”

As is typical within this community, the Klaus family do not own a TV, or computer, or read newspapers, seen as time-wasting, brain-destroying activities. Yoel now owns a “kosher” mobile phone, which doesn’t text or dial certain numbers. The family rarely ventures beyond the neighbourhood and do not have dealings with what Yoel calls the “Zionist state” – no national insurance or healthcare or education services. Many Haredi families do take welfare benefits and stipends for religious study, to the annoyance of sections of secular society. But Yoel says: “We don’t want one shekel from the state, and because of that I can fight them more freely.”

The couple’s six sons and five daughters range in age from 14 to a one-year old girl, a typically large Haredi family. “A Jewish mother has a purpose in life, to educate the next generation of Jewish people,” says Rachel. “She has a role, responsibility, she has to be an example and to focus on what she is doing – she prays a lot for guidance.”

Because of this custom of big families and the material poverty in which they live, the ultra-Orthodox often face accusations of negligence. “We don’t have this empty hole that secular people do, of always wanting more,” says Rachel. “Secular children are like that too: the more you give them, the more they want. We fill that hole in childhood with something spiritual and permanent, so they do not feel they are lacking.”

The children attend religious schools and do not have summer holidays: schools break according to the religious calendar. From the age of six boys are at school all day, while girls finish at lunchtime. The Klaus family communicates in Yiddish – none of the children learns Hebrew at school, as its everyday usage is deemed another Zionist abomination. Exposed to Hebrew in the neighbourhood, the parents and some of the elder children do now speak the language. But Rachel says: “Yiddish is our way of preventing assimilation. It’s our wall.”

They are well aware of how the outside world sees them. “If you don’t live it, this life looks impossible,” says Rachel. “But we don’t do it out of force, or with any difficulty. We feel the closeness of God and we are content, because we have fulfilment.”

Some commentators have seen the current protests as a show of ultra-religious power, a flexing of muscles to counter a recently elected secular mayor of Jerusalem who seems determined to reverse the secular brain drain from this poverty-stricken city. Elected in November 2008, when he ousted an ultra-religious mayor, Eli Barkat says he wants to attract tourists and day-trippers to Jerusalem. But that would involve what the ultra-Orthodox view as more Sabbath desecrations, as more shops and restaurants would open on Saturdays to accommodate the influx.

The protests in Jerusalem have consumed the Israeli media, but the Haredi community have a wider perspective, seeing it all as a historic battle between self-styled defenders of the Jewish faith and a secular state seeking to destroy it.

For the Kraus family, there is no way to relate to the non-religious world, or its concerns. “A secular person will never understand me, and I will never understand him,” says Yoel. “I see him stressed and angry all day long … and I think I have a better life than most. What am I lacking?”

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Gay ‘Olympics’ kick off in Copenhagen

Celebration of gay sport and culture with a focus on human rights in homophobic countries begins this weekend

There will be triathlon and handball – but also bridge and line dancing. Copenhagen is preparing for thousands of gay people from dozens of nations to descend this weekend for the Outgames, a nine-day sporting and cultural olympics for the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community.

When the 5,500 participants are introduced on a catwalk in Copenhagen’s central square today, it will kickstart nine days of sport, arts and political debates with almost 100 nations represented in more than 30 events, traditional and improvised.

But the event is about much more than podium places. The Outgames has launched itself under the banner of sport, culture and human rights. Participants from a host of cities, including Tel Aviv and Mexico City, will take over public spaces throughout Copenhagen to showcase artists and performers.

At the centre of the political programme is a human rights conference, where speakers include the British basketball player and sports commentator John Amaechi, the first NBA player to have come out.

On the fringe of the games, the people of Copenhagen have been encouraged to embrace the event and play an active role. At the main library you can “take out a gay” for a half-hour chat after you’ve scanned his or her barcode, while many of the participants are staying in private homes throughout the city.

The director of the Outgames, Uffe Elbæk, hopes the Copenhagen event will attract people from countries where gay people still face imprisonment and the organisers have funded the journey to Copenhagen for 250 participants from Asia, Latin America and Africa.

“The world is coming to Copenhagen, and we have worked towards our goal of ensuring that participants from places such as Africa, Asia and not least the Middle East have the opportunity to come to Copenhagen for the Outgames,” he said.

Elbæk sees the games as not just a celebration for the LGBT community, but a global event, highlighting that gay people are still criminalised in a third of the countries represented.

“We want to make this top priority and put the focus on human rights,” he said.

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Queen’s dresses go on display at Palace

Take a look at the Queen’s dresses from various Commonwealth tours she has undertaken


Abuse victims to get asylum in US

The Obama administration has moved to grant political asylum to foreign women who suffer severe physical or sexual abuse from which they are unable to escape because it is part of the culture of their own countries.

The decision, made evident in a court case involving a battered women from Mexico, ends years of dispute over the issue which saw the Bush administration stall moves toward recognising domestic violence as legitimate grounds for asylum made during Bill Clinton’s tenure.

The department of homeland security has told an immigration court that it regards the woman, identified only as 42-year-old LR, as potentially having grounds to apply for political asylum because she feared she would be murdered by her common-law husband who repeatedly raped her at gunpoint and tried to burn her alive when he discovered she was pregnant.

Karen Musalo, a lawyer and director of the Centre for Gender and Refugee Studies at the University of California who is representing a second woman involved in a similar asylum case, said that the move is a significant shift in policy that opens the way for physically and sexually abused women to seek the same protection that those fleeing female genital mutilation are already offered.

“There has been so much controversy and back and forth on this over many years. This finally opens the door to these women to seek protection,” she said.

But women who apply for asylum will still face significant obstacles.

“These are not easy cases to prove,” said Musalo. “LR must prove that in Mexico violence against women is pervasive and that there is a societal perception that this is acceptable. Then she has to prove that the Mexican government is unable or unwilling to protect her, and on top of that she has to show that there is nowhere in Mexico where she can be safe from her abusers.”

LR stands a good chance of meeting the criteria. According to court papers, her husband, who seduced her when he was her physical education teacher at school, forced her to have sex by holding a gun or machete to her head. He broke her nose on one occasion and, when he discovered she was pregnant, doused her bed with kerosene as she was sleeping and set it alight.

But when she reported the assaults to the police they dismissed them as a “private matter”. A judge she appealed to for help attempted to seduce her.

“In Mexico, men believe they have a right to abuse their women because they are like a possession,” LR said in the court submission.

The struggle to have domestic violence categorised as grounds for asylum has long centred on another women, Rody Alvarado from Guatemala, who has been represented by Musalo.

For many years, the US government said battered women did not qualify because they could not show persecution on specific grounds such as race or political opinion. That position was eroded in 1996 in a key ruling over female genital mutilation.

Until then the courts held that the women were victims of cultural oppression and that was not grounds for asylum because they were not members of a persecuted group under US law.

“The harm that women suffer is often a harm that is a cultural norm or accepted within a culture or required by the religion and so some adjudicators had taken the position that can’t be persecution as required by refugee law because it’s a cultural or religious requirement,” said Musalo. “Female genital cutting fell in to that category but the board of immigration said it doesn’t matter that it’s a cultural rite – if it’s a violation of human rights and objectively an egregious harm, it’s persecution.”

In the wake of the 1996 decision, Alvarado sought asylum to escape repeated severe beatings by her husband. Her case has been at the centre of a tangled and politicised dispute over the legitimacy of claims for protection from physical abuse.

An immigration court granted Alvarado asylum based on the earlier decision on female genital mutilation. An appeal court reversed the decision.

Clinton’s attorney general, Janet Reno, overturned the appeal court decision but shortly after that George Bush came to power and stalled the case which remains unresolved.

Musalo says the change in the department of homeland security’s position means Alvarado’s case is finally likely to be addressed.

Opposition to admitting battered women has in part come from politicians who argue that it will open the floodgates. Musalo said similar objections were made over the admission of women fleeing female genital mutilation.

“A lot of people who were opposed to a grant of asylum said millions of women are subject to female genital cutting a year and if we establish a precedent that this is a basis for asylum these millions of women are going to arrive in the US,” she said.

But, she said, there was not significant increase in claims. More than 29,000 people won asylum in the US last year on a variety of grounds.

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Panda cub born from frozen sperm

Groundbreaking cub born at Wolong national nature reserve in Sichuan province, China


Reinforcements sent to Afghanistan

The high number of troops killed and wounded on the battlefield has led defence chiefs to send urgent reinforcements to southern Afghanistan, the Ministry of Defence announced tonight.

In an unprecedented move, 125 personnel, some of them explosives experts, are being flown to Helmand where British forces have suffered the biggest attrition rate since the campaign against the Taliban and other insurgent groups began more than three years ago.

Within the past month, 19 British soldiers have been killed in Helmand and well over a hundred have been wounded, most of them in intensive fighting during Operation Panther’s Claw, a major offensive designed to clear the enemy out of key area.

It is the first time reinforcements have been deployed to replace British casualties in Helmand.

The MoD said that since deploying to Afghanistan in April, 19 Light Brigade has been engaged in a number of high-intensity operations.

“Most recently, Operation Panchai Palang (Panther’s Claw) has seen British forces engaged in hard fighting in an effort to bring security to parts of Helmand previously under Taleban influence,” said the MoD in a statement.

It added: “The operation has been extremely successful, driving fighters out of towns and providing the necessary security that will allow Afghan families to vote in next month’s presidential elections”.

But the statement, rushed out last night, continued: “This intense period has resulted in a significant number of casualties, both due to enemy action and the harsh terrain in which they operate.”

Today’s announcement follows requests by commanders on the ground to enable them to sustain the required operational effectiveness for the remainder of their tour, in particular, through the election period.

Bob Ainsworth, the defence secretary, said: “I have always said that I will listen to the view of commanders on the ground in Afghanistan – they are the people best placed to know the resources needed for that operation. In this case they have told me that, after the sad and tragic casualty rate that we have suffered in recent weeks, reinforcements are necessary to ensure we can maintain our operational tempo and consolidate the real progress we have made.”

He added: “These additional troops will ensure we have sufficient troop levels and, crucially, the right specialist skills in theatre. Many of our brave young men have died fighting to protect our national interest in Afghanistan and I will not allow their sacrifices to have been in vain.”

Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the Chief of the Defence Staff, said soldiers taking part in the Operation Panther’s Claw offensive had faced an “enormous battle” to break through the Taliban defences.

However, he said they had also inflicted “enormous numbers of casualties” on the enemy in their stronghold in central Helmand province.

“It has been very tough, very hard fighting because Helmand is for the Taliban their vital ground. They are very, very unwilling to give it up,” he told BBC Radio 4′s The World at One.

“This is a tough military campaign, it is far from over, there will be hard fighting to come.

The reinforcements, who will start flying out to Helmand on Monday, will comprise a company from 3rd Battalion The Yorkshire Regiment (Duke of Wellington’s), specialist counter improvised explosive devices specialists from 11 Explosive Ordnance Disposal Regiment The Royal Logistic Corps, and members of 19th Regiment Royal Artillery. They will deploy for the remainder of the current 19 Light Brigade tour, which is due to end in October when 11 Light Brigade take over.

All of them have received the appropriate training and personal equipment for conducting operations in Afghanistan, the MoD said.

There are 9,000 British troops in Helmand.

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Berlusconi digs himself a bigger hole

Tape has Italian PM telling escort of unreported find of ancient burial site on his estate

The Silvio Berlusconi tapes released this week have focused, not surprisingly, on lurid discussions of threesomes, condoms and staying power. But today Italy’s prime minister was facing the bizarre possibility that the most explosive secret in the recordings was neither sexual nor financial, but archaeological.

In one recording posted on the website of the news magazine L’Espresso on Thursday, Berlusconi is supposedly showing the “escort” Patrizia D’Addario around his estate on Sardinia. He points out an ice-cream shop built for his guests and then draws her attention to an artificial lake with swans.

After noting that the lake is adorned by a fossilised whale, Berlusconi purportedly adds: “Underneath here, we found 30 Phoenician tombs from 300BC.”

This was news to the archaeological community. And sensational news, too.

A necropolis under the estate near Porto Rotondo on the Costa Smeralda would be evidence of Phoenician settlement in an area where none were thought to have been situated. Italy’s National Association of Archaeologists said it would be “of the utmost importance for the study of Phoenician expansion on the island”.

Of more immediate concern was why, if such an obviously important discovery had been made during the excavation of the lake, the authorities were not notified. Government officials in nearby Olbia knew nothing about it. This is a serious matter. Failure to report an archaeological find within 24 hours is an offence in Italy punishable by up to 12 months in prison.

The opposition Democratic party, which had been looking for a way to embarrass the prime minister without getting immersed in his eventful sex life, was not slow to spot the opening. Representatives in both houses of parliament tabled questions, demanding that Berlusconi and his heritage minister give an explanation.

The prime minister has already reneged on a promise to explain his relationship with a teenager and laughed off the dissemination of the recordings. It remains to be seen whether the dead will succeed where the living have failed and force him to account for his behaviour.

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Daily podcast: Swine flu helpline tested

In a study for the Guardian, the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies
has assessed the public finances and the likelihood of spending cuts over
the next few years. Nicholas Watt, our chief political correspondent, says it’s a bleak picture.

David Batty tests a new Department of Health website and phone line for people worried they might have swine flu.

Home affairs editor, Alan Travis, looks at new British Crime Survey statistics on drug use, which shows more young people are taking Class A drugs such as ecstasy and cocaine.

One of Europe’s most popular folk songs is Der Kufsteinlied – a yodelling
ditty that’s a staple of German TV and beer-hall gatherings. It’s been the
subject of a court battle over royalties, as Kate Connolly reports from Berlin.

The National Trust is enlisting the help of surfers to help look after
Britain’s coastline. Steven Morris reports from north Cornwall.


Hoax plan to pave over Central Park

Is the hoax campaign to concrete over NYC’s favourite green space and build an airport a satire on incompetent transport policy or another product viral? Watch this space

“Environmentalists rally in support of Manhattan airport”. That got your attention, didn’t it? And that was precisely the intention of the Manhattan Airport Foundation, a mysterious organisation that has outlaid its proposals to bulldoze Central Park in New York city and build an airport instead.

The foundation put out a press release earlier this week saying that the “Triborough Association for Fair Treatment” – a group it says lobbies to get legislation drafted to help protect migratory birds from aircraft strikes – was putting its full support behind the building of a new airport in the heart of Manhattan as it would reduce the kind of bird-related incidents that brought down US Airways Flight 1549 back in January causing it to bellyflop into the Hudson.

It’s all nonsense, of course. The whole thing is a hoax – one that’s been getting plenty of attention all week and managing to snare a few suckers along the way, too. The Manhattan Airport Foundation is pure fiction, as are its plans for an airport. Only a few nanoseconds of consideration lead you to realise the last place on earth that would ever be concreted over to make way for an airport would be Central Park.

But who is behind the hoax? And why have they spent a considerable amount of time and effort (and, presumably, money) creating such a professional-looking website? Chances are the site will soon morph into an advert for something or other, as has happened with other web hoaxes in the past. Or it could be some web-savvy comedians looking for some viral marketing?

No one yet, though, seems to have undercovered the real identity of those behind the Manhattan Airport Foundation, or their motive. The website’s domain name was registered back in April (even though the foundation claims to have been founded in 2006), but the identity of the domain’s owner has been withheld. The foundation’s Twitter page has only been live since 8 June, and its address is listed as being on the 58th floor, 233 Broadway. Yet the building only has 57 floors.

A press release dated April of this year says the foundation is to receive “significant financial backing over the next five years” from the “Waalwijk Charitable Trust”. In addition to this, the “Tokyo-based holding company Yamanote Ltd” will be making a “substantial gift”. Again, both these organisations are fictional – Waalwijk is the name of a town in the Netherlands and Yamanote is an affluent area in Tokyo.

The only person’s name mentioned anywhere on the site is a press officer called “Audrey Cortlandt”. Again, nothing of note shows up online for that name, although it does throw up some interesting anagrams – “Lady Dancer Tutor” being one of them. Not that this really helps us, though.

The plot thickens.

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Aung San Suu Kyi trial delayed

Burmese pro-democracy leader says delay gives prosecution more time to prepare closing arguments in house arrest case

Burma’s jailed pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is “absolutely dissatisfied” by the decision to adjourn her trial until Monday because it gives prosecutors more time to prepare their closing arguments, her lawyer said today.

The widely criticised proceedings had been expected to end with defence lawyers and the prosecution presenting their final arguments today.

The Nobel peace prize winner is charged with breaking the terms of her house arrest after an American man spent two nights at her compound in May.

“[She] said she was absolutely dissatisfied with the arrangement giving more time for the prosecution to prepare the argument,” said Nyan Win.

The trial was adjourned after the defence spent more than two and a half hours reading out their 30-page closing statement, according to people in the courtroom.

A diplomatic source who witnessed the hearing said Aung San Suu Kyi looked “fit, healthy and in sparkling form.

“She smiled at her defence team and was admirably composed, particularly given the length of the hearing and the humidity in the courtroom.

“At the end she went over to the diplomats present and thanked them warmly for their support.”

The 64-year-old, who has spent 14 of the past 20 years under house arrest, has denied the charges. She says she urged her uninvited guest, John Yettaw, to go home and only relented after he claimed to be feeling unwell.

Aung San Suu Kyi, who is being detained at the notorious Insein prison in the capital, Rangoon, met her lawyers for two hours yesterday to discuss their closing arguments.

“We are very optimistic because our arguments are based on solid legal points,” her lawyer told reporters.

“We have the law on our side, but we don’t know if the judges are on our side.”

The defence team says the authorities have denied them the chance to properly make their case. While the court has heard testimony from 23 prosecution witnesses, only two defence witnesses have been allowed to take the stand. Most of the trial has been conducted behind closed doors.

The defence does not deny that Yettaw visited Aung San Suu Kyi’s compound, but were expected to argue that she could not be charged under a law belonging to a constitution that was abolished 25 years ago, or held responsible for the failure of her guards to apprehend the American.

The diplomatic source said that at times it wasn’t clear which law was being used for the prosecution. “The whole thing is incoherent as well as wrong. This is an attack on her because she stands for freedom of expression and assembly.”

Two female members of Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), are facing the same charges, while Yettaw is charged with trespassing. Lawyers will present their cases for the three on Monday before prosecutors present their closing arguments.

Yettaw swam across a lake to the heavily guarded compound using homemade flippers and water bottles as buoyancy aids. The 53-year-old Vietnam veteran said he had dreamed she was about to be assassinated and wanted to warn her.

Diplomats from France, Germany, Britain, Norway and Italy have been allowed to witness the hearing – only the third time observers have been given access to the court since the trial began on 18 May. The only journalists present were two reporters from the Burmese state media.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s supporters say the Burmese military junta is using Yettaw’s stunt as an excuse to keep her out of sight during national elections scheduled for next year.

The NLD won 80% of the vote in elections in 1990; a result ignored by the country’s military leaders.

Observers believe the court will find her guilty and impose a sentence ranging from another year of house arrest to up to five years in prison. The verdict is expected next month.

The junta appears determined to prevent her from playing any part in the elections, despite repeated international calls for her immediate and unconditional release.

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Jackson police begin criminal inquiry

Search warrant confirms inquiry becoming criminal investigation

The investigation into the death of Michael Jackson is being treated as possible manslaughter, according to a search warrant relating to the pop star’s personal doctor filed with the Los Angeles courts.

Speculation that the inquiry is moving in a criminal direction has been confirmed with the court documents that grant detectives the power to seek “property or items constituting evidence of the offence of manslaughter that tend to show that Dr Conrad Murray committed the said criminal offence”.

Murray was the Las Vegas-based physician whom Jackson employed to care for him during the build up to and completion of his London series of concerts that had been scheduled for this month. The doctor was at the singer’s side when he collapsed on June 25.

A clinic in Texas and a lock-up used by Murray were raided by officers of the US drugs agency and LA police on Wednesday. The court documents show that among items seized were 27 tablets of a weight loss drug called phentermine, one pill of clonazepam, a muscle relaxant and two computer hard drives.

The raids come ahead of results which are due to be announced by the LA county coroner’s office of the toxicology tests on Jackson which are expected in the next week or two. The focus appears to be on the anaesthetic propofol that was found in Jackson’s rented mansion after his death. Paraphernalia associated with the administration of the sedative, including a stand holding an intravenous drip and an oxygen tank, were also found in the room.

Murray is registered to practise in California, Nevada and Texas. There have been reports that medical authorities are investigating his practice with a view to suspending his licence.

Several other doctors used by Jackson in recent months have also been the subject of police interest, although none of them have as yet been interviewed by officers.

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Congress delays Obama’s healthcare reforms

President says he is sanguine about missed deadline but fears about $1tn plan continue to dog him

The US Congress will not meet next month’s deadline to pass sweeping healthcare reform as concerns about how to pay for the $1tn (£609m) plan continue to dog one of Barack Obama’s leading commitments.

The Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, said there will be no vote before Congress goes into recess in August as some senators complained that the speed of the reforms would produce flawed legislation.

Obama was sanguine, saying that he was not concerned so long as legislation on his plan for the government to provide health insurance was passed before the end of the year. “That’s OK. I just want people to keep on working. Just keep on working,” the president said.

But the delay is a blow because Democratic leaders had used the 7 August deadline to try to limit opposition within the party as various bills made their way through Congress.

The Republicans and sceptics will have the month-long recess to pick away at Obama’s plan by playing on voter concerns over cost and fears that the government will ration or restrict healthcare.

Obama was delivered a blow last week when the Congressional budget office director, Doug Elmendorf, said that the proposed plans could add up to $239bn to the deficit over the next 10 years.

That rang alarm bells among conservative Democrats who fear the reforms will result in higher taxes, which would anger voters.

A slew of adverts has hit US television screens from special interest groups attempting to portray Obama’s plan as likely to mean rationing of treatment and the authorities choosing people’s doctors.

Rick Scott, of Conservatives for Patients Rights, which has run adverts using the shortcomings of Britain’s NHS to campaign against the reforms, recently wrote a memo to supporters saying that delay would kill Obama’s plan.

“I am very confident, after meetings on (Capitol) Hill this week, that if Congress does not pass a healthcare bill with the public option before Labour Day [7 September], the public option is dead,” he wrote.

One of Obama’s problems is that without a detailed bill, it is difficult for him to persuade sceptical voters that they are not going to end up paying more or receiving less.

The president plans to meet Reid today and the Senate finance committee chairman, Max Baucus, in an effort to keep the legislation on track.

But the delay is clearly annoying the president. “It gets on my nerves. It frustrates me that we’d even be suggesting the status quo is the best we can do,” he said at a public meeting yesterday.

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Reformists challenge Iraq’s Kurdish elite

Obama-inspired Change party may form serious opposition in parliament as antipathy towards establishment grows

Amid rising tensions with Baghdad, Iraq’s self-ruling Kurds elect a parliament and president tomorrow following an unusually vigorous campaign in which a new reform movement has challenged the long supremacy of the elite.

The results will be closely watched by the government in Baghdad with whom the Kurds are engaged in bitter disputes over the distribution of power, territory and resources – solutions to which are seen as key to the country’s long-term stability. Turkey, Iran and Syria, each with significant Kurdish populations of their own, will also take notice.

Some two and a half million voters will choose between 24 party lists to fill 111 seats in the regional assembly in Erbil. Under a quota system, 30% of the MPs will be women. Eleven seats are set aside for minorities such as Turkomans and Christians.

A separate ballot will directly elect a president for the Kurdistan region. The incumbent, Massoud Barzani, who is head of the Kurdistan Democratic party, is expected to comfortably beat his four rivals.

But it is the parliamentary race that has caused the greater stir, with debates over poor services, the lack of transparency and corruption foremost.

The big beasts of Kurdish politics, Barzani’s KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which is led by Jalal Talabani, the Iraqi president, face a serious challenge for the first time since self-rule was established 18 years ago. Despite maintaining security and improving infrastructure, the coalition partners stand accused of allowing corruption, cronyism and nepotism to take root.

Enter Goran, (the Kurdish word for change), a reform movement inspired by the presidential campaign of Barack Obama. Its supporters’ chants of “We will change it” have been heard at rallies across Kurdistan, tapping into the broad public antipathy towards the old Kurdish establishment.

Change has put up a slate of candidates for the elections and though not expected to beat the KDP-PUK alliance, it may gain sufficient seats to form a serious opposition. It may also go on to fight in the elections for the federal parliament in Baghdad next January, splitting the powerful Kurdish bloc.

The message that “change is on its way” has resonated across the mountainous region, especially with younger Kurds, said Hiwa Osman, Iraq director of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.

“Its use of Kurdish rap music – a relatively new phenomenon here – and street parties has contrasted sharply with broadcasts for the ruling Kurdistan list, which stress bravery and courage and the past Kurdish struggles against Saddam Hussein in the mountains, all set to the theme tune for Gladiator,” said Osman.

It is a surprise therefore that the movement’s leader is an establishment veteran, Nawshirwan Mustafa. For years he was the PUK’s number two. But Mustafa, 65, broke with Talabani two years ago, criticising the debilitating system of mismanagement and corruption that was failing the Kurdish people.

Mustafa spreads Change’s message via a daily newspaper, a popular website and a satellite TV station. He said he wanted to clean up Kurdish politics and “stop the KDP and PUK from interfering in all aspects of public life”.

In Sulaymaniyah, where Change was born, its symbol of an orange-flamed candle on a deep blue background has appeared on the sides of buses and taxis, on T-shirts, baseball caps, and balloons. At night thousands of flag-waving supporters take to the streets.

“The emergence of Change has energised elections here like never before,” said Assos Hadi, the editor in chief of Awene newspaper. “Before, the Kurdish political scene was like a lake, with a few ripples here and there. Now it is like an ocean, with raging currents.”

A western diplomatic observer said: “Change made an impressive start to the election campaign but in recent weeks, the Kurdistan list has got its act together and come back hard at them.”

Private polling carried out by the Kurdistan alliance in the final days of the campaign suggested the Kurdistan list was ahead with 56% support, followed by Change with 14%, and a grouping of moderate Islamist parties and two secular parties third at 9%. However, the number of undecided/don’t knows was a surprisingly high 20%.

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Fight breaks out in Korean assembly

Politicians in Seoul’s National Assembly clash during vote on disputed media bill


Hospitals face swine flu bed shortage

Children’s units in hospitals will be particularly vulnerable, researchers predict

The swine flu pandemic could cause a severe shortage of intensive care beds in hospitals, especially in children’s units, experts warned today.

More than double the present number of beds may be needed in some regions, while there could also be shortages of ventilators to help patients breathe.

Facilities for children were likely to become quickly exhausted, while hospitals could face massive extra demand, researchers said in the journal Anaesthesia. Hospitals in the south-east, south-west and east of England, as well as the east Midlands, were likely to be hardest hit.

The predictions came as a pregnant woman from Scotland, critically ill with swine flu, was flown for specialist treatment to Sweden because the five beds at the UK specialist centre for her condition in Leicester were full.

As Alan Hay, an expert in swine flu, suggested that the first wave in the UK may be passing its peak before returning this winter, specialists in intensive care and anaesthesia from the University of Cambridge, the Intensive Care Society and St George’s Healthcare NHS Trust in London said English hospitals might be unable to cope with the number of people who fell ill with swine flu.

At present, the government says 840 people are in hospital in England – 63 in intensive care. An estimated 100,000 people fell ill last week, double the previous week’s total.

The intensive care experts predicted London would have enough beds and ventilators but demand for beds could be 130% above supply in the South East Coast Strategic Health Authority area and 120% above supply in the south-west. Similar levels of demand could occur in the east Midlands and east of England. Across the whole of England, demand for beds could be 60% above numbers available. The government has insisted it can cancel non-emergency operations to free up beds for swine flu patients, but the experts did not believe this would be sufficient.

“Only 10% of critical care beds in England are in specialist paediatric units, but best estimates suggest 30% of patients requiring critical care will be children,” said their paper.

“Paediatric intensive care facilities are likely to be quickly exhausted and suggests that older children should be managed in adult critical care units to allow resource optimisation.”

Ari Ercole, from Cambridge University, who worked on the study, said the researchers recognised the pandemic was in its early stages. “However, based on figures provided by the 10 regional health authorities and using the Flusurge model developed by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention in the US, we can see that hospitals would face a massive excess demand even if the pandemic lasted an optimistic 12 weeks.

“Paediatric intensive care facilities for children under 15 would be quickly exhausted, as they make up 10% of our current provision but could face 30% of the demand for pandemic related beds. Early experience of the present strain suggests that the attack rate is particularly high in the young and that this virus may severely compromise the immune system of people who contract it.”

The team behind today’s UK research calculated an average of 4.5 critical care beds per 100,000 people in England would be needed. In London, there are 7.5 per 100,000, 5.9 in the north-east, five in the north-west and 4.4 in Yorkshire and the Humber.

The lowest number of beds is in the south-east, which has three per 100,000 people. They said that, using numbers based on historical assumptions, “it has been shown that a flu epidemic could potentially overwhelm critical care bed and ventilator capacity in England”.

While extra beds could be made available by cancelling routine operations, “this would have important implications for ongoing acute and elective service provision”.

They said the total number of critical care beds in England currently stands at 2,030 adult beds and 265 for children.

An additional 1,607 adult high dependency beds are also available alongside 43 high dependency beds for children, which could be used to ventilate people.

“Nevertheless the calculations still show that even this number could be far too small to cope with demand.

“Additionally, since many intensive care units (and acute hospital beds) run at high occupancy, much of this capacity would not be available during a pandemic,” the paper said.

“Whilst regional variations in critical care provision exist, the data suggests that these are small and so inter-hospital transfer is unlikely to provide a solution to an overwhelming pandemic.”

Professor David Menon, one of the authors from the University of Cambridge, said the figures used in the research could fall on the conservative side.

It was possible that four times as many patients would be admitted to hospital as suggested, of whom about half would need intensive care.

He also said that between 10% and 50% of patients in intensive care with swine flu were suffering renal failure and requiring kidney support.

“If it’s 10% then we should be able to cope reasonably well but if it’s 50% then it would be a big task,” he said.

“We don’t have the equipment to deliver that level of support.”

In an accompanying editorial, Dr Jonathan Handy, a consultant at the Chelsea and Westminster hospital in London, said the predicted demand levels suggested immediate action was needed, from stockpiling supplies to looking at how medical students could play an active role in patient care.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Health said: “We can’t be certain how the current pandemic will develop, but we have to prepare for the reasonable worst case.

“As part of our preparations, guidance has been issued which contains information for primary and secondary care services in the UK on managing surge capacity and the prioritisation of services and patients during an influenza widespread outbreak.

“The guidance also identifies how maintaining an essential health service will be a community effort involving self care, support for those for whom hospital admission is not deemed appropriate, and supporting early discharge of patients from hospital.”

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US mayors and rabbis held in corruption inquiry

Two New Jersey mayors and dozens of political and religious figures were arrested today and charged in a massive bribery and money laundering scheme that included traffic in human body parts.

As part of an 10-year investigation into pervasive public corruption in New Jersey, hundreds of FBI agents fanned out across the state this morning to make arrests and search offices. Later, law enforcement vehicles crowded in front of agency offices as agents waited to unload their quarry.

Among those arrested following were Hoboken mayor Peter Cammarano III, Secaucus mayor Dennis Elwell, Jersey City deputy mayor Leona Beldini, state legislator Daniel Van Pelt, officials in the state capital, and several Syrian-Jewish rabbis who officials said laundered illicit cash through charities they controlled.

“The list of names and titles of those arrested today sounds like a roster for a community leaders meeting,” said Weysan Dun, a top New Jersey FBI agent.

The 44 people arrested today were snared by a single FBI witness who laundered $3m through networks with branches in the US, Israel and Switzerland, and paid more than $650,000 in bribes to the accused politicians, FBI officials said.

One northern New Jersey man, Levy Izhak Rosenbaum, was charged with conspiring to traffic human organs. Officials said he promised to sell to the witness’s relative for $160,000 a kidney he had acquired for $10,000.

The witness at the centre of the investigation was himself charged in 2006 with bank fraud, and was familiar enough with the argot of bribery and international organised crime to win the suspects’ trust, court filings in the case show. In several of the cases, he posed as a developer interested in paying public figures under the table to expedite real estate projects.

The deals caught on video and audio recordings took place in boiler rooms, bathrooms and diners, with the suspects coaching the witness on code language to use in facilitating the transactions.

Offered cash to speed along a proposed real estate project, Cammarano promised: “You’re gonna be treated like a friend,” according to court documents filed in the case.

“Just make sure you expedite my stuff,” the witness told Cammarano. “That’s all I ask.”

After suggesting he hire Van Pelt as a “consultant” on a project, the witness told the politician he was a member of neither the Democratic nor Republican parties, but was a member of the green party, where “green is cash”, according to a court filing.

Many of the arrested come from a gritty, urban area of New Jersey directly across the Hudson River from New York City that in recent years has attracted young professionals driven out of New York by high real estate prices. Hoboken is most famous as the home town of singer Frank Sinatra.

New Jersey has a long record of political corruption, and the FBI said the new haul adds to dozens previous convicted in recent years.

“The victims in these corruption cases are the citizens of this state,” said Ralph Marra, US attorney for the state of New Jersey, “and the honest businessmen who don’t pay off”.

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In conversation with Jeffrey Sachs

Leading economist and director of Earth Institute discusses aid and global warming


Irrigation is key to food security

Irrigation seems to have been left off the agenda when it comes to discussing food security in Uganda. It needs to be added now, argues Richard M Kavuma

As we now know, the people of Katine, the wider Teso region and other parts of Uganda are bracing themselves for famine following back-to-back drought. This is, of course, bad news, which makes the recent G8 pledge to support Africa to feed itself all the more timely. But what bothers me is the failure of the Ugandan government and indeed its donors – including the UK – to realise that simplistic solutions will only be stop-gap measures. Yes, there is talk about fertilizers and drought-resistant crop varieties, but governments have pretty much maintained a business-as-usual approach to agriculture. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development’s 2009 Least Developed Countries report says as much.

People in Katine realise that the weather is changing and many ask what is happening to “their” world. A year ago, one village leader’s message to the G8 heads of state was that they should help Katine plant trees to help stabilise the unpredictable weather. Of course, planting a tree in Katine is no panacea for all the crimes committed against the planet, especially by wealthier countries, but the 55-year-old village chairman was thinking along the right lines. But what does his president, Yoweri Museveni, in Kampala think? That it is all right for natural forests like Mabira to be replaced with sugar cane farms because sugar cane companies will pay billions of Ugandan shillings in taxes.

One painful thing about this drought/famine scenario was echoed by Stephen Ochola, Soroti district chairman, the other day: How can Egypt and Israel, which are largely deserts, grow fruits and export juice, while Uganda, blessed with rich soils, rainfall and lakes and rivers, starves? Why, Ochola wondered, can’t Uganda start seriously promoting irrigation to supplement the rains when necessary?

Out of Uganda’s estimated 400,000 hectares of irrigable land, barely 5% is under irrigation – and these are large-scale farms. The government has for years talked about harnessing water for production, but there is too little being done.

People must find creative ways to harness water resources to make irrigation by smallholder farmers possible. But they need creative, committed leadership. It is expensive, of course, but who said saving lives was going to be cheap? For without a change in approach this is what it will come down to – saving people from starving to death.

Another issue that does not feature in the G8 text was brought up by farmer Julius Eilu, who is already having trouble feeding his family of nine children. Asked what he would do to cope, Eilu said: “Perhaps I should stop fathering children.” This is a telling statement by a father in an area where children come with some pride.

Eilu’s president in Kampala sees no problem with Uganda’s population growth rate of 3.2% per year. In fact he thinks Uganda’s population of 30 million is too small. Yet as families have more children that they can hardly afford, farmland gets fragmented into small plots for the many siblings, productivity reduces and the dependence ratio grows. Couple that with unpredictable weather and the business-as-usual approach of the state and you have the recipe for a perpetually food-insecure, poor country.

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